08:11 AM EDT, 08/18/2025 (MT Newswires) -- In June, eurozone exports dropped by 2.4% month-on-month and on the year were up by 0.4%, noted ING after Monday's data.

As imports increased by more than 3% month over month, the seasonally-adjusted trade surplus narrowed to 2.8 billion euros, from 15.6 billion euros in May. There is no data on bilateral trade for the eurozone, only for the European Union.

The June data shows the expected collapse of EU exports to the United States (-10% year over year) but also China (-12% year over year), noted the bank.

Tariffs and, more structurally, the loss in international competitiveness are highly affecting EU exports, stated ING. Despite talks about finding new trading partners to make up for the potential loss of trade with the U.S., EU exports to India and Brazil, for example, were down by some 5% year over year in June.

More generally speaking, the first months of the year saw highly volatile industrial data in Europe, pointed out the bank. The up and down was mainly driven by frontloading of U.S. exports ahead of looming tariffs and subsequent reversals.

Monday's June data provides a first impression of what could be left of EU exports after the first tariff wave, added the bank. In June, many EU exporters had already been subject to 10% U.S. tariffs, automotive producers to 25% and steel and aluminium producers as much as 50%. The 15% tariffs agreed in July became effective on Aug. 1.

The strengthening of the euro since the start of the year, U.S. tariffs, as well as broader uncertainty regarding the future of global trade and fierce competition for EU exporters in general, are likely to weigh on EU exports moving forward, according to ING. Currently, it's hard to see how exports could soon return as a powerful engine of EU growth.