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Conflict zones reducing available flight paths

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Diversions, cancellations are a growing cost burden for

airlines

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Civil aviation spending more on security planning, data

By Lisa Barrington, Shivansh Tiwary and Joanna Plucinska

NEW DELHI, June 4 (Reuters) - Proliferating conflict

zones are an increasing burden on airline operations and

profitability, executives say, as carriers grapple with missiles

and drones, airspace closures, location spoofing and the

shoot-down of another passenger flight.

Airlines are racking up costs and losing market share from

cancelled flights and expensive re-routings, often at short

notice. The aviation industry, which prides itself on its safety

performance, is investing more in data and security planning.

"Flight planning in this kind of environment is extremely

difficult ... The airline industry thrives on predictability, and

the absence of this will always drive greater cost," said Guy

Murray, who leads aviation security at European carrier TUI

Airline.

With increasing airspace closures around Russia and Ukraine,

throughout the Middle East, between India and Pakistan and in

parts of Africa, airlines are left with fewer route options.

"Compared to five years ago, more than half of the countries

being overflown on a typical Europe-Asia flight would now need

to be carefully reviewed before each flight," said Mark Zee,

founder of OPSGROUP, a membership-based organisation that shares

flight risk information.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the Middle East since

October 2023 led to commercial aviation sharing the skies with

short-notice barrages of drones and missiles across major flight

paths - some of which were reportedly close enough to be seen by

pilots and passengers.

Russian airports, including in Moscow, are now regularly

shut down for brief periods due to drone activity, while

interference with navigation systems, known as GPS spoofing or

jamming, is surging around political fault lines worldwide.

When hostilities broke out between India and Pakistan last

month, the neighbours blocked each other's aircraft from their

respective airspace.

"Airspace should not be used as a retaliatory tool, but it

is," Nick Careen, International Air Transport Association (IATA)

senior vice president for operations, safety and security, told

reporters at the airline body's annual meeting in New Delhi on

Tuesday.

Isidre Porqueras, chief operating officer at Indian carrier

IndiGo, said the recent diversions were undoing

efforts to reduce emissions and increase airline efficiencies.

WORST-CASE SCENARIO

Finances aside, civil aviation's worst-case scenario is a

plane being hit, accidentally or intentionally, by weaponry.

In December, an Azerbaijan Airlines flight crashed in

Kazakhstan, killing 38 people. The plane was accidentally shot

down by Russian air defences, according to Azerbaijan's

president and Reuters sources.

In October, a cargo plane was shot down in Sudan, killing

five people.

Six commercial aircraft have been shot down unintentionally,

with three near-misses since 2001, according to aviation risk

consultancy Osprey Flight Solutions.

Governments need to share information more effectively to

keep civil aviation secure as conflict zones proliferate, IATA

Director General Willie Walsh said this week.

Safety statistics used by the commercial aviation industry

show a steady decline in accidents over the past two decades,

but these do not include security-related incidents such as

being hit by weaponry.

IATA said in February that accidents and incidents related

to conflict zones were a top concern for aviation safety

requiring urgent global coordination.

TOUGH CHOICES

Each airline decides where to travel based on a patchwork of

government notices, security advisers, and information-sharing

between carriers and states, leading to divergent policies.

The closure of Russian airspace to most Western carriers

since the outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022 put them at a cost

disadvantage compared to airlines from places like China, India

and the Middle East that continue to take shorter northern

routes that need less fuel and fewer crew.

Shifting risk calculations mean Singapore Airlines'

flight SQ326 from Singapore to Amsterdam has used

three different routes into Europe in just over a year,

Flightradar24 tracking data shows.

When reciprocal missile and drone attacks broke out between

Iran and Israel in April 2024, it started crossing previously

avoided Afghanistan instead of Iran.

Last month, its route shifted again to avoid Pakistan's

airspace as conflict escalated between India and Pakistan.

Flight SQ326 now reaches Europe via the Persian Gulf and Iraq.

Singapore Airlines did not respond immediately to a request for

comment.

Pilots and flight attendants are also worried about how the

patchwork of shifting risk might impact their safety.

"IATA says airlines should decide if it's safe to fly over

conflict zones, not regulators. But history shows commercial

pressures can cloud those decisions," said Paul Reuter, vice

president of the European Cockpit Association, which represents

pilots.

Flight crew typically have the right to refuse a trip due to

concerns about airspace, whether over weather or conflict zones,

IATA security head Careen said.

"Most airlines, in fact, I would say the vast majority of

them, do not want crew on an aircraft if they don't feel

comfortable flying," he said.