March 17 (Reuters) - Event contracts have exploded in
popularity since the U.S. presidential election, fueling a
heated debate between traders who have embraced the nascent
asset class and critics who liken it to gambling.
Several market players such as retail-favorite Robinhood
and Interactive Brokers ( IBKR ) have rolled out event
contracts in recent months, looking to cash in on the boom.
Robinhood on Monday also launched a standalone hub on its
app to allow traders to wager on college basketball and U.S.
interest rates.
Here is how event contracts are shaping up as a new asset
class:
WHAT ARE EVENT CONTRACTS?
Event contracts allow traders to bet on specific outcomes,
offering opportunities to profit from predictions on everything
from sports and entertainment to politics and the economy.
Users can speculate on whether a movie will surpass a
certain Rotten Tomatoes score, or if the U.S. will enter a
recession this year, or if the price of bitcoin will breach a
new milestone.
When event contracts became more popular ahead of the U.S.
presidential election, Elon Musk said on X that prediction
markets were "more accurate than polls, as actual money is on
the line".
HOW DO THEY WORK?
Unlike gambling, where bets are placed against the house,
event contracts function as a marketplace between traders.
Such contracts typically pay out $1 if the event occurs.
Their prices fluctuate depending on the likelihood of the
underlying outcome.
WHY ARE EVENT CONTRACTS MAKING HEADLINES?
While proponents of event contracts see them as a new avenue
for traders, their road to legitimacy has been fraught with
challenges.
In 2023, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
rejected a proposal by prediction marketplace KalshiEX to permit
trading of political event contracts tied to Congressional
control, saying they involved unlawful gaming and were "contrary
to the public interest".
Kalshi sued, and was cleared to resume trading these
contracts in October. The ruling also encouraged others waiting
to dip their toes into the sector.
Still, concerns remained. In a January interview with the
Financial Times, former CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam said he was
concerned about the legality and social impact of bets on
political and other events.
Robinhood was also forced to roll back its Super Bowl event
contracts in February, just a day after the launch, following a
request from the CFTC.
WHAT'S NEXT?
The rise of event contracts reflects the trend of
"democratization" in financial markets as firms seek to attract
retail investors. An anticipated wave of deregulation under
President Donald Trump may help companies facilitating these
trades.
CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham's pledge to end "regulation
by enforcement" could also foster a more collaborative
environment.
Critics, however, still voice concerns.
"These contracts are a backdoor attempt to bring gambling
into financial markets," said Cantrell Dumas, director of
derivatives policy at Better Markets, a group that advocates
stricter oversight of the financial sector.
"Expanding the CFTC's role into gambling would stretch its
limited resources and divert it from its core mission of
overseeing legitimate derivatives markets."
(Reporting by Niket Nishant in Bengaluru; editing by Arpan
Varghese and Devika Syamnath)