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EXPLAINER-Senegal's election: What is at stake for investors?
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EXPLAINER-Senegal's election: What is at stake for investors?
Mar 18, 2024 4:05 AM

JOHANNESBURG, March 18 (Reuters) - International

investors will be closely monitoring the presidential election

in Senegal, scheduled for March 24, after delays incited

widespread protests.

The country, usually one of coup-prone West Africa's most

stable democracies, has been gripped by tension since early

February, when President Macky Sall tried to postpone the vote

that had been due to take place on Feb. 25 by 10 months, leading

to warnings of democratic backsliding.

WHAT ARE INVESTORS FOCUSED ON?

Senegal has about $4.2 billion of outstanding international

bonds, two issued in euros and three in U.S. dollars. For

investors in those bonds, the current focus is on whether the

presidential vote will be peaceful and fair.

"The market will be looking very clearly to understand

whether or not the voters will be able to express their view in

what is perceived to be a credible way," said Yvette Babb, a

portfolio manager at William Blair Investment Management.

Babb said there was no clear consensus among bond investors

as to who would prevail among the 19 presidential candidates, of

whom one would have to get more than half of the votes to avoid

a second-round run-off vote.

"If you look at the market pricing, it is in my view mainly

about the process and not necessarily about the outcome," she

said. "The market is most certainly first focused on just

getting this behind us."

WHAT ABOUT ECONOMIC POLICY?

Senegal is generally seen as business friendly and with good

economic prospects, thanks to natural gas projects that are set

to start production later this year and that the International

Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts will boost GDP growth to double

digits by 2025.

It secured $1.9 billion of IMF funding in October, which was

seen as a stabilising force for public finances. The pegging of

the regional CFA franc currency to the euro is viewed as a

positive for keeping inflation relatively contained.

"Ultimately, the biggest risk is of a political nature in

Senegal right now," said Joe Delvaux, a portfolio manager at

Amundi, Europe's largest asset manager.

"Do I think... economically this will shift much in the

country? As long as the political actions are done, I don't

think there will be a complete reversal on policies or IMF

discussions or cooperation with the IMF," he said.

COULD SENEGAL BE LED BY A POPULIST?

All but one of Senegal's 19 presidential election candidates

broadly support maintaining the country's business-friendly

landscape, said Mucahid Durmaz, senior West Africa analyst at

risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.

But the opposition coalition backed by popular firebrand

Ousmane Sonko, who has tapped into frustration at a lack of jobs

among young people, has pledged to create a new national

currency and renegotiate mining and energy contracts.

Sonko and his coalition's presidential candidate Bassirou

Diomaye Faye were released from jail on Thursday night,

celebrated by thousands of supporters in the streets of the

capital Dakar.

While there are no public election polls, Faye is seen as a

strong contender to replace Sall, who is stepping down as

president after two terms.

"Despite the flow of investment coming in, people are asking

why hasn't this changed my life, why haven't I benefited from

it?" said Dumaz. "That's a huge popular sentiment in Senegal at

the moment and Faye's premises reflect that."

($1 = 0.9187 euros)

(Reporting by Rachel Savage, Additional reporting by Karin

Strohecker in London, Editing by Bate Felix)

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