JOHANNESBURG, March 18 (Reuters) - International
investors will be closely monitoring the presidential election
in Senegal, scheduled for March 24, after delays incited
widespread protests.
The country, usually one of coup-prone West Africa's most
stable democracies, has been gripped by tension since early
February, when President Macky Sall tried to postpone the vote
that had been due to take place on Feb. 25 by 10 months, leading
to warnings of democratic backsliding.
WHAT ARE INVESTORS FOCUSED ON?
Senegal has about $4.2 billion of outstanding international
bonds, two issued in euros and three in U.S. dollars. For
investors in those bonds, the current focus is on whether the
presidential vote will be peaceful and fair.
"The market will be looking very clearly to understand
whether or not the voters will be able to express their view in
what is perceived to be a credible way," said Yvette Babb, a
portfolio manager at William Blair Investment Management.
Babb said there was no clear consensus among bond investors
as to who would prevail among the 19 presidential candidates, of
whom one would have to get more than half of the votes to avoid
a second-round run-off vote.
"If you look at the market pricing, it is in my view mainly
about the process and not necessarily about the outcome," she
said. "The market is most certainly first focused on just
getting this behind us."
WHAT ABOUT ECONOMIC POLICY?
Senegal is generally seen as business friendly and with good
economic prospects, thanks to natural gas projects that are set
to start production later this year and that the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts will boost GDP growth to double
digits by 2025.
It secured $1.9 billion of IMF funding in October, which was
seen as a stabilising force for public finances. The pegging of
the regional CFA franc currency to the euro is viewed as a
positive for keeping inflation relatively contained.
"Ultimately, the biggest risk is of a political nature in
Senegal right now," said Joe Delvaux, a portfolio manager at
Amundi, Europe's largest asset manager.
"Do I think... economically this will shift much in the
country? As long as the political actions are done, I don't
think there will be a complete reversal on policies or IMF
discussions or cooperation with the IMF," he said.
COULD SENEGAL BE LED BY A POPULIST?
All but one of Senegal's 19 presidential election candidates
broadly support maintaining the country's business-friendly
landscape, said Mucahid Durmaz, senior West Africa analyst at
risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.
But the opposition coalition backed by popular firebrand
Ousmane Sonko, who has tapped into frustration at a lack of jobs
among young people, has pledged to create a new national
currency and renegotiate mining and energy contracts.
Sonko and his coalition's presidential candidate Bassirou
Diomaye Faye were released from jail on Thursday night,
celebrated by thousands of supporters in the streets of the
capital Dakar.
While there are no public election polls, Faye is seen as a
strong contender to replace Sall, who is stepping down as
president after two terms.
"Despite the flow of investment coming in, people are asking
why hasn't this changed my life, why haven't I benefited from
it?" said Dumaz. "That's a huge popular sentiment in Senegal at
the moment and Faye's premises reflect that."
($1 = 0.9187 euros)
(Reporting by Rachel Savage, Additional reporting by Karin
Strohecker in London, Editing by Bate Felix)