PARIS, Dec 17 (Reuters) - The European Union is
tightening its rules on auto emissions from Jan. 1 as part of
broader targets to achieve climate neutrality in the region by
2050.
WHAT ARE THE TARGETS?
From Jan. 1, 2025 the average level of carbon dioxide (CO2)
emissions per kilometre for each new car sold should not exceed
93.6 grammes.
That is 19% lower than this year's target, says consultancy
Dataforce, which says 2024 targets would be equivalent to 116
g/km under the new system of measuring emissions.
Each manufacturer will be allocated specific targets based
on the EU rules that take into account the average mass of its
new vehicles.
Luxury carmakers, or "small volume" manufacturers, have
separate targets.
WHAT ARE THE EXPECTED FINES?
Manufacturers will be fined 95 euros ($99.97) for each g/km
in excess of their specific target on each new vehicle
registered.
Luca De Meo, Renault chief executive and chief of
the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), has
said the industry overall could be liable for around 15 billion
euros in fines next year.
Stellantis Europe chief Jean-Philippe Imparato
told Italian newspaper Milan Finanza last month that it faces
fines of as much as 3 billion euros if it can't comply.
But Barclays analysts consider Stellantis ( STLA ), BMW and
Renault to be better positioned than Ford, Mercedes
and Volkswagen, which have large CO2 gaps
to close.
Potential fines for non-compliance for Volkswagen alone
could be 1.5 billion to 4.7 billion euros in 2025, depending on
CO2 savings, according to brokerage Stifel.
WHAT CAN CARMAKERS DO TO ESCAPE POTENTIAL FINES?
Companies with lower EV sales can "pool" their emissions
with sector leaders, purchasing emissions credits from other
manufacturers to lower their overall averages.
Japan's Suzuki has signed a pooling agreement with
Geely-owned Volvo, a spokeswoman has said. Ford said
earlier this year it had purchased $3.8 billon of credits for
use in North America and Europe.
Many are also expected to offer discounts on their EVs to
boost sales. They could also increase the prices of their petrol
engine cars to make EVs look comparatively more appealing and
reduce sales of CO2 "bad actors" in their portfolio.
WHO STANDS TO BENEFIT?
Volvo is one of the furthest ahead in lowering overall
emissions, with a large share of its output made up of electric
vehicles and plug-in hybrids.
Tesla, and Chinese companies like BYD,
are also likely to be in a position to sell emissions credits to
poor performers. Credits could cost around 20 euros per excess
gramme of CO2, Barclays estimated in September, based on likely
supply and demand.
MIGHT THE TARGETS BE DELAYED OR CHANGED?
German Economy Minister Robert Habeck has called for a more
flexible approach to the targets, such as allowing carmakers to
offset possible fines in 2025 if they exceed their quotas for
2026 and 2027. In late September, he suggested pulling forward
the revision of emissions targets from 2026 to 2025.
ACEA chairman Luca de Meo told reporters in November he
hoped fines could be calculated across the five-year period to
2030, when emissions rules are due to be further tightened.
Austria, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Italy, Romania and
Slovakia are asking the Commission to bring forward to next year
a review due in 2026 on the EU's auto transition regulation.
The states also want the Commission to reduce fines for
non-compliant companies.
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