Dec 31 (Reuters) - Russian gas supplies sent via Ukraine
to Europe for more than 40 years are scheduled to end on January
1 after Ukraine's Naftogaz refused to renew its latest five-year
transit deal with Russia's Gazprom.
Despite the war between the two countries, Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Dec 19 said Kyiv might consider
allowing the transit of Russian gas if payments to Moscow were
withheld until the fighting ends.
Russian President Vladimir Putin a week later said there was
no time left this year to sign a new deal.
Here is what we know about options for when Russian gas
transit via Ukraine stops.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russia's supply to Europe has fallen dramatically in the
wake of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in Feb. 2022 which spurred
the European Union to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
Moscow spent half a century building its European gas market
share, which at its peak stood at about 35% but has fallen to
about 8%.
As of Dec. 1 the EU received less than 14 billion cubic
metres (bcm) of gas from Russia via Ukraine, down from 65
bcm/year when the latest five-year contract began in 2020.
The European Commission has said that volume can be fully
replaced by liquefied natural gas and non-Russian pipeline
imports.
Moscow has lost market share to rivals such as Norway, the
United States and Qatar.
Russia could earn around $5 billion on sales via Ukraine
this year based on an average Russian government gas price
forecast of $339 per 1,000 cubic metres, Reuters calculations
show.
Ukraine earns between $800 million and $1 billion in
transit fees per year.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss
of Russian supplies. With supplies set to end, EU officials and
traders say a repeat of that rally is unlikely given the now
modest volumes involved and the small number of customers
remaining.
WHO IS AFFECTED?
The Ukraine route serves Austria and Slovakia.
Austria received most of its gas via Ukraine, while Slovakia
takes around 3 bcm from Gazprom per year, about two-thirds of
its needs.
Gazprom halted supply to Austria's OMV in
mid-November over a contractual dispute but volumes held steady
via the route as other buyers stepped in.
Slovakia has said the loss of Russian supply would not
hit its consumption and that it has diversified supply
contracts. Its main gas buyer SPP has contracts for non-Russian
supply with BP, Eni, ExxonMobil ( XOM ), RWE
and Shell.
WHAT OPTIONS DO BUYERS HAVE?
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including
Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic Sea.
One option is the TurkStream pipeline to Turkey under the
Black Sea, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity is
limited.
Slovakia's gas supply could come from Hungary, roughly a
third from Austria and the remainder from the Czech Republic and
Poland, according to Austrian energy regulator E-Control.
Austria should not face disruptions as it has prepared
for the switch in supply, its regulator has said.
The Czech Republic is likely to tap more supply from Germany
pipelines taking advantage of an exemption from a German
domestic gas levy from Jan. 1.
The Czech Republic has said it is ready to provide Slovakia
with gas transit and storage capacities.
Russia supplies Moldova with about 2 bcm of gas per year. It
is piped via Ukraine to the breakaway region of Transdniestria
where it is used to generate cheap power that is sold to
government-controlled parts of Moldova.
Gazprom said it plans to suspend supply on Jan. 1 citing
unpaid bills.
Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean has condemned the
decision but said the country has diversified sources of supply.
The country plans measures to reduce consumption by at least a
third from Jan. 1.
As for Ukraine, its security of supply will not be impacted
as it does not use Russian transit gas, the European Commission
said.
WHERE DOES THE GAS COME FROM?
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline carries gas
from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - which is now under control
of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region.
It flows through Ukraine to Slovakia where the pipeline
splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Transdniestria borders Ukraine and also receives Russian
gas via Ukraine.