MOSCOW, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir

Putin met Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in the Kremlin on

Sunday, a rare visit by a European Union leader to Moscow as a

contract allowing for Russian gas to transit through Ukraine

nears expiry.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had said on Thursday

that Kyiv could consider continued transit of Russian gas, but

only on condition that Moscow did not receive payment until

after the war - a condition it was unlikely to accept. Putin

said that day that it was clear there would be no new deal with

Kyiv to send Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe.

Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is

completely turned off and whom will be affected most.

HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?

Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively

small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas

via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to

Europe via various routes in 2018-19.

Russia spent half a century building its European gas market

share, which at its peak stood at 35%.

Moscow has lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the

United States and Qatar since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in

2022, which spurred the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.

EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss

of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest

volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining

volumes, according to EU officials and traders.

UKRAINIAN ROUTE

The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas

from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - which is now under control

of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then

flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.

In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to

the Czech Republic and Austria.

Russia's overall gas exports via the route have held

steady despite the

stoppage

of flows from Gazprom to Austria's OMV in

mid-November over a contractual dispute, and legal wranglings as

other buyers stepped in to buy the volumes.

Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while

Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.

Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom

per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.

The Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from

the east last year, but began taking gas from Russia in 2024.

Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including

Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.

The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to

Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Turkey under the

Black Sea. Turkey sends some Russian gas volumes onward to

Europe including to Hungary.

WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?

While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the

issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as

France and Germany have said they will not buy Russian gas

anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which

have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.

The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is

the most economic fuel and also blame neighbouring EU countries

for high transit fees imposed on alternative supplies.

Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees per year

from Russian gas transit.

According to Reuters calculations, Gazprom's total

pipeline gas exports to Europe via all routes in 2024 have

increased to 32 bcm from 28.3 bcm in 2023, when they collapsed

to the lowest level since the 1970s.

Russia could earn around $5 billion on sales via Ukraine

this year based on an average Russian government gas price

forecast of $339 per 1,000 cubic metres, according to Reuters

calculations.

Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a

net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since

1999, because of the loss of EU gas markets.

Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal

but Kyiv has repeatedly said it will not do it.

Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via

another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or

Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.

Hungary

has been keen to keep the Ukrainian route open, but said it

would continue to receive Russian gas from the south, via the

TurkStream pipeline on the bed of the Black Sea.

The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate

discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal.

A senior source at Azeri energy company SOCAR told Reuters

on Friday that Moscow and Kyiv have failed to agree on the deal

brokered by Azerbaijan to continue Russian gas exports to Europe

via Ukraine.