June 13 (Reuters) - Washington imposed new sanctions on
Wednesday on the Moscow Exchange and its clearing
agent, the National Clearing Centre (NCC), leading to an
immediate trading halt in dollars and euros on Russia's largest
bourse.
The U.S. Treasury said it was "targeting the architecture of
Russia's financial system, which has been reoriented to
facilitate investment into its defense industry and acquisition
of goods needed to further its aggression against Ukraine".
Russia shrugged off the move, pointing to the reduced role
of the dollar and euro since Moscow's February 2022 full-scale
invasion of Ukraine led to sweeping Western sanctions.
But the U.S. move took the market by surprise and it may
take days, if not weeks, for it to settle into the new reality.
TRADING HALT
The central bank said Moscow Exchange trading in dollars,
euros and Hong Kong dollars would stop. The sanctions,
particularly the inclusion of the NCC, prevent traders from
settling spot and futures contracts with dollars through MOEX
infrastructure.
"The sanctions were imposed only by the U.S., but EU
countries also observe them," the central bank said. "Therefore,
exchange trading was also stopped in the euro."
MOEX will likely face reduced trading volumes, which could
squeeze its profits. Its shares sank 15% at the market opening
in Moscow, before settling around 4.8% lower.
The fact that no clear indicator of the rouble-dollar rate
emerged at the start of the banking day suggests that Russia's
financial system was not 100% ready for this move, said Yevgeny
Nadorshin, chief economist at PF Capital.
SILVER LININGS
Crucially, around 60% of Moscow-based FX trading is now
conducted over-the-counter (OTC). The central bank said it would
calculate the official rouble rate based on OTC trading.
Since it started calculations in this way, the bank has only
observed "insignificant deviations" from the official
exchange-traded rate for the dollar and euro.
The exchange rate will remain market-based - it is only the
data used for calculating it that has changed.
Another benefit for Russia is that burgeoning trade with
China as Moscow redirects trade flows east has made the yuan the
most traded currency in Moscow, with 54% of the market in May,
up from a negligible pre-war share.
"To determine where the fair rate is, market participants
will be able to rely on the cross rate of rouble-yuan and
yuan-dollar and yuan-euro," said Alfa Capital.
ROUBLE PROSPECTS
Short-term volatility is unavoidable, but a strengthening of
the rouble is possible in the medium-term. When payment
difficulties hampered imports early this year, the rouble
gained, said Raiffeisen Bank analysts.
"Over the longer horizon, the rouble could even strengthen
further. As it becomes more difficult to withdraw foreign
currency ... this could lower demand for it," said Alfa Capital.
"Let's remember 2022: the rouble initially weakened strongly
due to market panic, but then began to strengthen."
The central bank said the rouble rate was determined by the
balance of supply and demand for foreign currency received from
foreign trade activities and did not depend on how transactions
were carried out.
Russian exporters that are obliged to sell a portion of
their foreign currency revenues as part of capital controls
supporting the rouble would continue to do so in dollars,
directly through authorised banks, the central bank said.
WIDE SPREADS, OTHER RISKS
Brokers were offering wide buy-sell spreads and many were
not conducting transactions at all, further evidence of the
market's general lack of preparedness for the sanctions.
"In the future, the difference between U.S. dollar and euro
buying and selling rates will become larger than before, however
the emergence of additional transaction costs and more complex
access to buying major world currencies will to some extent
limit domestic demand for foreign assets," said Oleg Kuzmin and
Andrei Melaschenko of Renaissance Capital.
Washington has clearly signalled its intent to clamp down on
banks in third countries that enable Russia to sustain its war
effort.
"The new restrictions increase the level of risk in terms of
possible secondary sanctions," said Alfa Bank.