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By Sheila Dang and Jaspreet Singh
Jan 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday
ruled against TikTok's bid to avoid a ban that could shut the
app down in just two days and impact millions of users who rely
on the platform for entertainment, ecommerce and ad dollars.
The looming ban is the end result of 2024 legislation passed
on national security concerns that called for TikTok parent
ByteDance to sell the popular short-video app or see it shut in
the United States on Jan. 19.
It remained unclear how long a potential ban would stay
in place as President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office on
Monday, has said he would try to find a "political resolution"
of the issue to keep the app operating in the United States.
On Friday, Trump said he spoke with Chinese leader Xi
Jinping on several topics, including TikTok.
Here's what could happen on Sunday.
WHAT HAPPENS TO THE APP?
New users will not be able to download TikTok from Apple ( AAPL ) and
Google app stores and existing users will not be able to update
the app, because the law prohibits any entity from facilitating
the download or maintenance of the TikTok application.
Cloud service provider Oracle could see some
disruption to its work with TikTok. Oracle hosts TikTok's U.S.
user data on its servers, reviews the app's source code and
delivers it to app stores.
TikTok plans to keep paying its 7,000 employees in the U.S.,
the company's leadership has said in an internal memo.
HOW WILL USERS BE AFFECTED?
TikTok's about 170 million users in the U.S. will likely
still be able to use the app because it is already downloaded on
their phones, experts say. But over time, without software and
security updates, the app will become redundant.
At best, a web-based version of the service might be
accessible that has fewer features than the app, and even that
might not work, experts have said.
Some users could try to access TikTok through virtual
private networks, or VPNs, which can conceal the internet
protocol, or IP, address of a user and thereby their location.
Other Chinese social media apps such as RedNote, known in
China as Xiaohongshu, are expected to continue gaining traction
among U.S. users.
Content creators who have built businesses from their TikTok
followings are preparing for the app's potential shutdown and
redirecting their followers to alternatives such as Instagram
and YouTube.
WHAT WILL ADVERTISERS DO?
Advertisers have rushed to prepare contingency plans this
week as the ban will jeopardize their campaigns on the
platforms. One marketing executive described it as a "hair on
fire" moment for the ad world, after months of conventional
wisdom saying that a solution would materialize to keep the
short-video app up and running.
TikTok has continued to pitch advertisers on new features,
like a tool launching in test form that would make it easier to
create, modify and add advertisements in bulk.
If a ban does occur, more than $11 billion in annual U.S. ad
investment would be up for grabs, according to a forecast from
marketing group WARC Media.
"Wall Street will be watching the results of Meta, Snap, and
others to see who benefits from this rapid spend shift," said
Craig Atkinson, CEO of digital marketing agency Code3.
Some advertisers may continue spending beyond Jan. 19 on
TikTok and reevaluate if the app sees declining usage or
performance, said Jason Lee, executive vice president of brand
safety at media agency Horizon Media.
WHAT HAPPENS TO U.S.-CHINA TRADE RELATIONS?
A TikTok ban could worsen trade tensions between the U.S.
and China that were already strained after export curbs on
advanced American semiconductor technology to Beijing.
However, "such a ban would be no surprise as it has been
under discussion for five years," said Sean Ennis, professor
from the University of East Anglia.
Trump could try to use an executive action to protect TikTok
for his four years in office, but he could use the risk of him
changing his position to extract something meaningful from
China, analysts at LightShed Partners have said.
Reversing the ban could give Trump some bargaining power
with China, analysts say.
WHO ARE THE POTENTIAL BUYERS?
TikTok has repeatedly said it cannot be sold from ByteDance.
That hasn't deterred billionaire businessman Frank McCourt,
a former owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball team. His
consortium values the app without its algorithm at around $20
billion.
Other media have reported that Chinese officials are in
talks about potentially selling TikTok's U.S. operations to
billionaire Elon Musk, a big financial backer of Trump. TikTok
called the report "fiction".