(Recasts with Trump demand for allies to help reopen the strait)
By Sarah Young and John Irish
March 16 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump has
demanded help from allies to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which
usually carries about a fifth of global energy supplies, but
even if he can assemble a major coalition it could prove very
hard to end Iran's blockade.
Iran lies along one side of the narrow strait and has
responded to the U.S.-Israeli attack from February 28 by using
drones, missiles and mines to make the vital waterway unsafe for
the colossal oil and gas tankers that slowly traverse it each
day.
WHY HAS IRAN CUT OFF THE STRAIT NOW?
When a commander in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
warned in 2011 that cutting off the strait would be "easier than
drinking a glass of water", the threat to the strait had already
been made many times before.
In the years since, the Guards have continued to warn they
could close it, including during tensions over sanctions and
Iran's nuclear programme in 2016 and 2018, and again during
Israeli and U.S. strikes in June last year.
Analysts have always regarded the closure of the strait as a
measure of last resort because of the long-term strategic
changes it might prompt among Iran's enemies, and the potential
for retaliation against its own energy sector.
The attack on Iran starting on February 28 with the killing of
its supreme leader has changed that equation. Iranian officials
describe the war as existential and the hardline Guards have
increasingly taken charge of strategy.
WHAT IS AT STAKE?
The narrow passage of water between Iran and Oman that links
the Gulf with the Gulf of Oman is the only sea exit for oil- and
gas-producing countries such as Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Qatar and
the United Arab Emirates.
Oil prices briefly climbed to their highest level since 2022
on Monday. High oil prices could trigger another cost-of-living
crisis, as happened after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022,
according to the United Nations.
A prolonged conflict could also cause a fertilizer shock,
risking global food security. About 33% of the world's
fertilisers, including sulphur and ammonia, pass through the
strait, according to analytics firm Kpler.
An extended war could fuel fears of a global economic crisis
similar to those that followed the Middle East oil shocks of the
1970s.
WHY IS THE STRAIT SO HARD TO SECURE?
Shipping lanes are just two nautical miles wide and ships
must make a turn opposite Iranian islands and a mountainous
coast that provides cover for Iranian forces, according to
shipping broker SSY Global.
Iran's conventional navy has largely been destroyed but the
Guards still have plenty of options including fast-attack craft,
mini submarines, mines and even jet skis packed with explosives,
said Tom Sharpe, a retired Royal Navy commander.
Tehran has the capacity to produce around 10,000 drones a month,
according to the Centre for Information Resilience, a non-profit
research group.
Escorting three or four ships a day through the strait would
be feasible in the short-term using seven or eight destroyers
providing air cover, and would depend on whether the risk from
mini submarines has been reduced, but doing so sustainably for
months would require more resources, Sharpe said.
Even if Iran's capacity to deploy ballistic missiles, drones
and floating mines were destroyed, ships would still face a
threat from suicide operations, said Adel Bakawan, Director of
the European Institute for Middle East and North African
Studies.
If the war does continue for weeks, some kind of escort will
come together, said Kevin Rowlands, Editor of the RUSI Journal
at the Royal United Services Institute.
"The world needs oil to flow through from the Gulf, and so
there is planning ongoing to put protection measures in place,"
he said.
WHAT DOES TRUMP WANT AND WHAT ARE U.S. ALLIES DOING?
Trump said on Sunday he expected many countries would send
warships and demanded that they do so, adding that his
administration was in touch with seven countries about helping.
That step came a week after he ordered the U.S.
International Development Finance Corporation to provide
insurance and guarantees for shipping companies.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has discussed the need to
reopen the strait with Trump and had previously said London was
working with allies on a range of options.
EU foreign ministers are on Monday to discuss bolstering a
small naval mission focused on protecting Red Sea shipping from
Yemen's Houthis, but are not expected to discuss expanding the
mission to the Strait of Hormuz.
French President Emmanuel Macron said before Trump's demand that
several European and Asian countries were planning a joint
mission to provide protection, but only after the conflict ends.
Germany has said it is sceptical about even bolstering the Red
Sea mission, saying it had not proven very effective.
Japan and Australia both said on Monday they were not
planning to send naval vessels to help escort ships through the
strait.
WHAT HAPPENED IN OTHER SHIPPING CHOKEPOINTS IN THE REGION?
Yemen's Houthis, a group allied with Iran but with a far smaller
military arsenal at their disposal, shut down most traffic
passing through the Red Sea for more than two years despite U.S.
and EU naval efforts.
Most shipping companies are still using a far longer route
via the southern tip of Africa. Danish shipping company Maersk
had said it would begin a staggered return to the Suez route
from January.
An EU-led force has been more successful at countering
piracy off Somalia's coast, but that has been against forces far
less well-equipped than Iran's Revolutionary Guards.
ARE THERE ANY ALTERNATIVES TO USING THE STRAIT?
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have sought to find ways to bypass
the strait by building more oil pipelines.
But those are not currently operational and an attack on an
east-west Saudi pipeline by Houthi militia in 2019 showed those
alternatives were also vulnerable.
(Additional reporting by Renee Maltezou and Kate Holton, Writing
by Charlie Devereux and Angus McDowall, Editing by Timothy
Heritage and Keith Weir)