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EXPLAINER-Will Venezuela's disputed election lead to new era of isolation?
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EXPLAINER-Will Venezuela's disputed election lead to new era of isolation?
Aug 1, 2024 3:36 AM

HOUSTON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The United States is

considering fresh sanctions on Venezuela following Sunday's

disputed presidential election. Incumbent President Nicolas

Maduro claimed victory, but opposition leaders say tallies show

their candidate Edmundo Gonzalez won more than twice as many

votes as Maduro.

If governments in North America and Europe seek to impose

new measures against Maduro's administration, they could

potentially return the country to isolation, analysts said.

WHAT SANCTIONS IS VENEZUELA ALREADY UNDER?

Venezuela has been hit with economic and oil sanctions by

several countries since 2017 over accusations of corruption,

drug trafficking and human rights violations. The most severe

package has been imposed by the U.S. in the last five years

following Maduro's 2018 reelection, which Washington rejected as

a sham.

An easing of some sanctions last year to encourage the 2024

election was reversed in April after the U.S. said Maduro had

failed to meet all his commitments. That meant individual

companies have to apply for licenses to operate in the energy

sector, although a key license to U.S. producer Chevron ( CVX )

granted in 2022 remains in force.

Maduro has bristled against the sanctions, which include

more than 900 punitive measures, according to data by the

Venezuelan government. He has called them illegal and demanded

their withdrawal.

"They made us lose 99% of our revenue," Maduro said in a

broadcast speech last week. "(But) no school or university was

closed, not a single social program was canceled. We have

reinvented ourselves."

WHAT FURTHER SANCTIONS COULD FOLLOW?

Options being considered by the U.S. include individual

sanctions on officials, including U.S. travel bans for those

linked to the disputed election, according to sources in

Washington.

That could later escalate to other types of sanctions if

deemed necessary, including measures on the financial and energy

sectors, they said.

U.S. officials said on Monday they were not currently

considering any changes to Chevron's ( CVX ) license or to other

individual authorizations. Chevron's ( CVX ) license has become a

flagship mechanism to recover debt by exporting Venezuelan

crude, copied by other companies with operations in the country.

The officials said they were coordinating with regional

allies on a response and would also work with international

partners on potential consequences.

The European Union has also imposed sanctions on Venezuela

in recent years, and along with the U.S., Brazil and other

countries has urged Venezuela's National Electoral Council to

provide immediate access to the voting tallies.

"Until voting records are made public and are verified, the

election results as already declared cannot be recognized," it

said.

HOW COULD THIS AFFECT THE ENERGY SECTOR?

Venezuela's crude oil production averaged 884,000 barrels

per day (bpd) in the first half of this year, 15% above the same

period of 2023, but well below the 3.2 million bpd peak in 1997

before late President Hugo Chavez took office.

About two-thirds of Venezuela's crude production capacity

has been lost in the last decade due to a lack of investment, an

exodus of skilled workers, mismanagement and corruption at state

company PDVSA and, more recently, sanctions.

The same problems have kept Venezuela's gas industry

severely underdeveloped. The country's gas output - which is now

half of what it was in 2016 - is not enough to meet domestic

demand despite Venezuela having the largest reserves in Latin

America. Venezuela is flaring, or burning off, a large portion

of production.

An eventual return to full sanctions on the energy industry

would put a ceiling on Venezuela's scant progress to recover oil

output, making it difficult to meet its goal of 1.2 million bpd

by year end.

Even when oil sanctions were temporarily eased, PDVSA

continued using intermediaries to export its crude, who demanded

large price discounts and led to a dark fleet of tankers to

disguise deliveries, triggering more sanctions.

If individual licenses are restricted, the volume of fuel

imports Venezuela can source to ease its domestic deficit is

expected to decline, creating the likelihood of increased

scarcity.

Waves of fuel scarcity in recent years have slowed down the

economy, contributing to inflation and shortages of basic goods,

including food and medicine.

WILL MADURO'S ALLIES STICK WITH HIM?

China, the top destination of Venezuela's oil, has never

halted imports even amid sanctions. It has already recognized

Maduro as the election's winner and said it was ready to enrich

its strategic partnership with the OPEC-member country.

Venezuela also has relied on Russia and Iran in recent years

to secure financing, diluents and imported fuel for domestic

use, and for trading help to allocate exports.

A new alliance with Iran is seen as critical by analysts to

keeping Venezuela's lagging energy sector afloat, but that could

leave other partners that were negotiating project expansions

and new ventures with PDVSA out of the picture.

COULD ENERGY SANCTIONS AFFECT THE U.S. OR EUROPE?

Even though Chevron ( CVX ) has ramped up deliveries of Venezuelan

crude to the United States since early 2023, its about 200,000

bpd of heavy crude arriving into the U.S. are not considered

essential for refiners.

An interruption of that flow could briefly impact prices of

some crude grades, but refineries are not expected to struggle

in the long run to find replacements.

In Europe, just a handful of refiners have facilities

capable of processing Venezuela's heavy crudes. Other large

importers, including India, might need to increase intake of

Russian or Middle Eastern grades, as they have done in the past.

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