HOUSTON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The United States is
considering fresh sanctions on Venezuela following Sunday's
disputed presidential election. Incumbent President Nicolas
Maduro claimed victory, but opposition leaders say tallies show
their candidate Edmundo Gonzalez won more than twice as many
votes as Maduro.
If governments in North America and Europe seek to impose
new measures against Maduro's administration, they could
potentially return the country to isolation, analysts said.
WHAT SANCTIONS IS VENEZUELA ALREADY UNDER?
Venezuela has been hit with economic and oil sanctions by
several countries since 2017 over accusations of corruption,
drug trafficking and human rights violations. The most severe
package has been imposed by the U.S. in the last five years
following Maduro's 2018 reelection, which Washington rejected as
a sham.
An easing of some sanctions last year to encourage the 2024
election was reversed in April after the U.S. said Maduro had
failed to meet all his commitments. That meant individual
companies have to apply for licenses to operate in the energy
sector, although a key license to U.S. producer Chevron ( CVX )
granted in 2022 remains in force.
Maduro has bristled against the sanctions, which include
more than 900 punitive measures, according to data by the
Venezuelan government. He has called them illegal and demanded
their withdrawal.
"They made us lose 99% of our revenue," Maduro said in a
broadcast speech last week. "(But) no school or university was
closed, not a single social program was canceled. We have
reinvented ourselves."
WHAT FURTHER SANCTIONS COULD FOLLOW?
Options being considered by the U.S. include individual
sanctions on officials, including U.S. travel bans for those
linked to the disputed election, according to sources in
Washington.
That could later escalate to other types of sanctions if
deemed necessary, including measures on the financial and energy
sectors, they said.
U.S. officials said on Monday they were not currently
considering any changes to Chevron's ( CVX ) license or to other
individual authorizations. Chevron's ( CVX ) license has become a
flagship mechanism to recover debt by exporting Venezuelan
crude, copied by other companies with operations in the country.
The officials said they were coordinating with regional
allies on a response and would also work with international
partners on potential consequences.
The European Union has also imposed sanctions on Venezuela
in recent years, and along with the U.S., Brazil and other
countries has urged Venezuela's National Electoral Council to
provide immediate access to the voting tallies.
"Until voting records are made public and are verified, the
election results as already declared cannot be recognized," it
said.
HOW COULD THIS AFFECT THE ENERGY SECTOR?
Venezuela's crude oil production averaged 884,000 barrels
per day (bpd) in the first half of this year, 15% above the same
period of 2023, but well below the 3.2 million bpd peak in 1997
before late President Hugo Chavez took office.
About two-thirds of Venezuela's crude production capacity
has been lost in the last decade due to a lack of investment, an
exodus of skilled workers, mismanagement and corruption at state
company PDVSA and, more recently, sanctions.
The same problems have kept Venezuela's gas industry
severely underdeveloped. The country's gas output - which is now
half of what it was in 2016 - is not enough to meet domestic
demand despite Venezuela having the largest reserves in Latin
America. Venezuela is flaring, or burning off, a large portion
of production.
An eventual return to full sanctions on the energy industry
would put a ceiling on Venezuela's scant progress to recover oil
output, making it difficult to meet its goal of 1.2 million bpd
by year end.
Even when oil sanctions were temporarily eased, PDVSA
continued using intermediaries to export its crude, who demanded
large price discounts and led to a dark fleet of tankers to
disguise deliveries, triggering more sanctions.
If individual licenses are restricted, the volume of fuel
imports Venezuela can source to ease its domestic deficit is
expected to decline, creating the likelihood of increased
scarcity.
Waves of fuel scarcity in recent years have slowed down the
economy, contributing to inflation and shortages of basic goods,
including food and medicine.
WILL MADURO'S ALLIES STICK WITH HIM?
China, the top destination of Venezuela's oil, has never
halted imports even amid sanctions. It has already recognized
Maduro as the election's winner and said it was ready to enrich
its strategic partnership with the OPEC-member country.
Venezuela also has relied on Russia and Iran in recent years
to secure financing, diluents and imported fuel for domestic
use, and for trading help to allocate exports.
A new alliance with Iran is seen as critical by analysts to
keeping Venezuela's lagging energy sector afloat, but that could
leave other partners that were negotiating project expansions
and new ventures with PDVSA out of the picture.
COULD ENERGY SANCTIONS AFFECT THE U.S. OR EUROPE?
Even though Chevron ( CVX ) has ramped up deliveries of Venezuelan
crude to the United States since early 2023, its about 200,000
bpd of heavy crude arriving into the U.S. are not considered
essential for refiners.
An interruption of that flow could briefly impact prices of
some crude grades, but refineries are not expected to struggle
in the long run to find replacements.
In Europe, just a handful of refiners have facilities
capable of processing Venezuela's heavy crudes. Other large
importers, including India, might need to increase intake of
Russian or Middle Eastern grades, as they have done in the past.