LONDON, Feb 19 (Reuters) - As Moscow and Washington

discuss how to end the war in Ukraine, one of the many questions

on investors' minds is whether the corporate exodus from Russia

in opposition to the February 2022 invasion of its neighbour may

be reversed.

As long as broad Western sanctions on Russia remain in

place, that looks unlikely, but should U.S. President Donald

Trump's administration seek to ease restrictions, it could open

the door for some companies to return to what was once a

high-growth market.

Here is a rundown of the situation:

WHO EXITED AND HOW?

More than a thousand companies from McDonald's to

Mercedes-Benz have left Russia in the last three years

by selling, handing the keys to existing managers or abandoning

assets. Others like Danone and Carlsberg

had their assets seized and a sale forced through.

Western companies have acknowledged losses totalling $107

billion in writedowns and lost revenue, according to a Reuters

analysis in March 2024. Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian

Direct Investment Fund, says U.S. companies have lost $324

billion by leaving Russia.

Companies such as McDonald's, Renault and Henkel

agreed buyback options when exiting.

France's Renault sold its majority stake in Russian carmaker

Avtovaz in May 2022 for reportedly just one rouble, but with a

six-year option to buy it back.

Some food and healthcare companies, including Procter &

Gamble ( PG ), PepsiCo ( PEP ) and Mondelez ( MDLZ ), say they

stayed on humanitarian grounds to continue supplying Russians

with basic goods.

WHICH SECTORS ARE LIKELY TO WANT TO RETURN FIRST?

After the highest-level U.S.-Russian meeting since the Ukraine

war began this week, Dmitriev said, without giving further

details, that he expects a number of U.S. companies to return as

early as the second quarter.

The most likely to return are those operating outside

sanctions, such as retailers and food producers, rather than

those in sectors such as energy and finance.

Dmitriev said he believed U.S. oil majors that had been

successful in Russia would "at some point" return.

Senior lawmaker Anatoly Aksakov this week said he thought

Visa and Mastercard ( MA ) would soon restore payment

services. The two companies said their Russia suspensions

remained in place.

WHY WOULD COMPANIES NOT RETURN?

Hundreds of Western companies including Carlsberg and Unilever ( UL )

issued statements condemning Russia's aggression against Ukraine

in the days and weeks after the invasion, framing their exit

from the country or suspension of operations in moral terms.

Should a deal be reached that rewards Russia with Ukrainian

territory, companies that have criticised Moscow risk

reputational damage by returning.

WHAT SECTORS ARE OFF LIMITS?

Companies involved in supplying goods that have both

civilian and military applications are bound by Western

restrictions.

Boeing ( BA ) and Airbus, for example, halted the

supply of planes and spare parts. Other examples include

semiconductors, telecoms equipment and electronics.

Speculation is rife on whether the U.S.-Russia talks could yield

a softening of sanctions, but no concrete proposals have yet

been made. Meanwhile, the European Union on Wednesday agreed a

16th package of anti-Russia sanctions, including a ban on

primary aluminium imports.

Sanctions prohibit providing Russia with financial or

energy-related services and Russian officials' statements that

they expect Western companies to return look for now like

wishful thinking.

HOW HAS THE RUSSIAN MARKET CHANGED?

Some of the world's most popular brands from Starbucks ( SBUX ) to

IKEA and Levi's have been replaced by Russian imitations.

The more than 800 McDonald's restaurants in Russia now operate

under the brand Vkusno & tochka (Tasty & that's it), owned by

Alexander Govor and run in a similar fashion.

Starbucks ( SBUX ) sold its business to restaurateur Anton

Pinskiy and rapper Timati, and is now known as Stars Coffee.

Recapturing the market may be particularly hard for carmakers,

as Chinese competitors have established a more than 50% market

share, up from less than 10% three years ago.

It is not clear how willing Russia would be to support the

return of European carmakers at the expense of Chinese ones,

especially given the "no limits partnership" between Moscow and

Beijing as trade between the two nuclear powers ballooned.

WOULD WESTERN COMPANIES BE WELCOME?

Moscow has long promised to retaliate for what it views as the

theft of Russian assets abroad and has seized companies in

Russia through presidential decrees and the courts.

Russia currently controls a handful of Western companies through

the guise of "temporary management" and is this year quickening

the pace of asset seizures of companies with foreign ownership

links.

Most companies exiting Russia were forced to sell at huge

discounts. Convincing investors to dip their toes back into the

Russian market may take time.

($1 = 7.1560 Danish crowns)