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Exxon, TotalEnergies output at risk from Iran war, analysts say
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Exxon, TotalEnergies output at risk from Iran war, analysts say
Mar 11, 2026 6:06 AM

HOUSTON, March 2 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil ( XOM ),

TotalEnergies and Shell are among the

companies with more exposure to disruptions in oil and gas

production due to the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, analysts said

in research notes on Sunday and Monday.

The U.S. and Israel's strikes on Iran on Saturday, which

killed Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have roiled

the energy sector.

The conflict has forced the shutdown of some oil and gas fields

in the region and effectively halted shipping through the Strait

of Hormuz, an important waterway between Iran and Oman through

which tankers carrying crude oil, fuel and liquefied natural gas

from major Middle Eastern producers and refiners must travel on

their way to buyers.

Analysts at Jefferies estimate 29% of French oil major

TotalEnergies' total production is in the Middle East while the

region accounts for 20% of Exxon's oil and gas output and 20%

for Shell.

Even as the war threatens some production, it has caused a surge

in oil and gas prices that could help prop up the companies'

profits. Brent crude futures settled up about 7% on

Monday at $77.74 per barrel, while the European natural gas

benchmark jumped about 40%.

One of the most significant impacts could be to Exxon's

liquefied natural gas portfolio. Nearly 60% of the U.S. oil

major's LNG business is concentrated in the Middle East, TD

Cowen said.

Exxon declined to comment on its operations in the region,

while Shell and TotalEnergies did not immediately respond to

requests for comment.

The three companies are all partners of Qatar's state-owned

energy firm QatarEnergy, which halted LNG production on Monday

following Iranian drone attacks on its facilities. The country

accounts for about 20% of global LNG supply.

Exxon will eventually benefit from the startup of Golden

Pass LNG, its project in Texas that is expected to begin

production this month, noted Betty Jiang, an analyst from

Barclays.

In addition to LNG stakes in the Middle East, TotalEnergies

produces oil and gas in the UAE and Shell has a

significant presence in Oman.

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