02:58 PM EDT, 07/09/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Exxon Mobil's ( XOM ) second-quarter earnings are expected to reflect the impact of energy price declines and lower-than-expected refining margins in the energy products segment, UBS Securities said in a note e-mailed Wednesday.

UBS lowered its second-quarter earnings forecast for Exxon to $1.56 per share from $1.66, following the company's disclosure of factors expected to affect the results.

In a Form 8-K filed on Monday, Exxon said price changes of liquids including crude were expected to reduce its upstream earnings by $800 million to $1.2 billion in the second quarter. The company anticipates a $300 million to $700 million hit to upstream earnings due to gas price changes.

The liquids outlook beat UBS' expectations by $150 million, while the expected gas impact was bigger than the brokerage's estimates, analyst Josh Silverstein wrote.

UBS lowered its upstream adjusted net income forecast to $5.03 billion for the quarter from $5.16 billion.

The brokerage cut its adjusted net income forecast for the energy products segment by about $350 million to $1.3 billion, citing lower-than-expected refining margins and timing impacts.

The US oil giant is scheduled to release its second-quarter results on Aug. 1.

The revised EPS estimate of $1.56 is still above the company's implied $1.52 guidance, partly reflecting slight upstream volume growth excluding maintenance, Silverstein said.

"On the call, we expect (Exxon) to highlight continued strong operational performance across the asset base, including value creation in the Permian through (the company's) advantaged technology," Silverstein wrote.

UBS reiterated its buy recommendation and a $130 price target on the stock.

The brokerage lowered its full-year adjusted EPS forecast by 2% to $6.14, though it raised its 2026 estimate by 1% to $7.68. Analysts polled by FactSet are currently projecting non-GAAP EPS of $6.52 for 2025 and $7.73 for 2026.

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