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Fed to Proceed With Consecutive Rate Cuts At Least Through December, Goldman Says
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Fed to Proceed With Consecutive Rate Cuts At Least Through December, Goldman Says
Nov 4, 2024 1:01 PM

03:37 PM EST, 11/04/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates at least through December, with speculation about a potential pause seen are "premature," Goldman Sachs said Monday.

In September, the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee lowered interest rates by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5%, its first cut since March 2020. A Bloomberg-compiled consensus at the time had indicated a smaller quarter-percentage-point reduction.

"The committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance," the FOMC said in September following its meeting.

The FOMC is scheduled to kick off its two-day meeting Wednesday. Markets are widely expecting the committee to reduce interest rates by a quarter percentage point Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

"We expect a (25-basis-point) cut at the November FOMC meeting and see market discussion of an upcoming skip as premature," Goldman Sachs said in a note emailed to clients on Monday. "We expect cuts to remain consecutive at least through December."

Goldman said Fed officials would want to see several months of job market stabilization before "relaxing entirely about risks there." In addition, "some have said that the high level of the funds rate is having a restrictive effect on the economy and might want to bring it down a bit further before considering slowing the pace," according to the brokerage.

The FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections showed in September that members lowered their median federal funds rate outlooks from 2024 through 2026 and raised the unemployment rate expectations.

Official data last month showed that US consumer inflation rose at a more-than-expected pace in September both sequentially and annually. On Friday, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that US job creation fell well short of Wall Street's estimates in October amid an ongoing Boeing ( BA ) strike and potential hurricane-related disruptions.

"We are penciling in four more consecutive cuts in the first half of 2025 to a terminal rate of (3.25% to 3.5%), but see more uncertainty about both the speed next year and the final destination," Goldman Sachs said Monday. "If the unemployment rate holds steady or falls and the activity and job growth numbers remain solid for a while, then an every-other-meeting pace could become a plausible alternative path."

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