March 18 (Reuters) - Drought in the western Canadian
province of Alberta is stretching into its fourth year and
farmers and oil companies are planning for water restrictions
that threaten production of wheat, beef and crude.
The severe conditions have prompted Alberta to open
water-sharing negotiations among licence-holders for the first
time in two decades, hoping to salvage output from two of its
biggest industries.
Alberta, which relies on melting snow and precipitation for
most of its water supply, has allocated water since 1894. That
system prioritises those who have held licences the longest,
although holders rarely exercise that right.
Alberta's water talks underline the difficult compromises
facing resource-rich regions adapting to extreme weather.
Hydrologists say the future will bring Alberta more rain instead
of snow due to climate change, which will strain summer water
supplies.
The province produces most of Canada's oil, natural gas and
beef, plus big wheat and canola harvests, much of which it
exports.
Irrigation to grow crops in dry areas accounts for 46% of
Alberta's water allocation, with oil and gas using 10%.
Reuters spoke with more than a dozen farm, energy and
government officials and found those industries preparing for
the drought to potentially scale back production and raise
costs.
Drought could cause double-digit declines in Alberta's wheat
yields, based on crop production data from the past two decades.
Oil producers are making costly contingency plans to store more
water on site and truck water across the province.
Brad Deleeuw, who manages the 5,500-head Delta Cattle
feedlot near Coaldale, Alberta, said the impact of water
scarcity "could be huge."
Deleeuw will prioritize watering cattle over irrigating his
wheat, corn and barley, but that shift will likely reduce
yields.
"You'd go from a black situation to a red situation pretty
quick," Deleeuw said, referring to financial losses.
If he must import significantly more expensive cattle feed
this summer from the U.S. to make up for smaller Canadian crops,
Deleeuw said he would have to reduce how many cattle Delta
fattens for slaughter by Cargill and JBS.
Drought contributed to Canada's beef herd shrinking this
year to its smallest on record, according to Statistics Canada.
Snow water equivalent, which measures water content of
mountain snowpack, was down 40% as of March 5 from a year
earlier in southern Alberta's St. Mary River basin. The nearby
Waterton basin was down 27%, according to provincial and federal
government data.
CROP HIT
Some 70% of Canada is abnormally dry or in drought,
according to the government, with the driest conditions in
Alberta and British Columbia.
Alberta's largest-ever water-sharing talks could result in
major consumers agreeing in early April to share water
voluntarily with others downstream, environment ministry
spokesperson Ryan Fournier said. If conditions remain dire, the
province could declare an emergency and is working on a plan
involving additional steps, Fournier said.
In 2001, the last time water-sharing negotiations happened,
Alberta's durum wheat yield was 22 bushels per acre, down 37%
from the previous five-year average, according to Statistics
Canada. In dry 2021, spring wheat yield fell 35% while barley
yield dropped 36% year-over-year. The vast majority of Alberta's
grain grows on dry land, not irrigated land.
Alex Ostrop, who farms near Lethbridge, is bracing to make
do with much less water to irrigate fields. In 2001, his
district's water allocation was eight inches per acre or 38%
less than what Ostrop used last year.
"Commodity prices are down generally - (this year) would be
a double whammy of lower commodity prices and reduced yields,"
Ostrop said.
COSTLY CRUDE
For oil companies, dry conditions may elevate costs by
forcing them to shift drilling to sites with water access or to
truck water, said Tristan Goodman, CEO of the Explorers and
Producers Association of Canada. Companies will not drill if
wells get too expensive, he said.
Oil producers are renting on-site water storage structures
known as C-rings and other swimming pool-sized spaces, drilling
company Trican Well Service ( TOLWF ) said.
"You're seeing customers start to really think about how
they're going to be managing water months in advance - they just
haven't had to worry about that before," Trican CEO Bradley
Fedora told analysts in February.
For now, parts of Alberta and British Columbia with the most
conventional drilling and fracking have manageable water levels,
Goodman said.
Drilled wells did not decline in the dry years 2001 and
2017, according to data from industry group Enserva.
Shell is putting water contingency plans in
place for its Alberta wells, spokesperson Stephen Doolan told
Reuters, declining to give details. Suncor Energy ( SU ) told
analysts the drought has prompted it to plan a water-treatment
plant in its oil sands operations for the end of this decade.
With Alberta possibly heading to a drier future, the
province is spending C$933 million ($691.32 million) to expand
irrigation. That means Alberta will spread limited water supply
over 230,000 additional acres, but the upgrade will reduce
evaporation by converting open canals to pipelines, Alberta
Agriculture Minister RJ Sigurdson said.
Oil and gas producers are maximizing efforts to store and
recycle water, with all eyes on the skies, said Ken Wagner, CEO
of Fraction Energy Services, which rents water storage
equipment.
"It's definitely top of everybody's mind. We need some more
snow and we need big rain."
($1 = 1.3496 Canadian dollars)