*

JPMorgan ( JPM ) stock may fall by 10%-15% on CEO Jamie Dimon's

eventual

departure

*

Analysts, investors say 'Jamie premium' has grown in

recent

years

*

Dimon's timeline for stepping down is no longer five years

*

JPMorgan ( JPM ) stock up nearly 24% in 2024 vs 19% for broader

U.S.

bank index

By Nupur Anand

NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Questions hang over who

will succeed JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ) CEO Jamie Dimon and when,

but analysts and investors say one thing is almost certain: the

bank's stock will slump when the powerful bank chief eventually

departs.

JPMorgan ( JPM ) shares reflect a so-called "Jamie premium" of 10%

to 15% that could evaporate when the longest-running chief of a

major Wall Street bank decides to leave, according to estimates

from four investors and three analysts.

A 15% figure translates to almost $90 billion in market

capitalization as of Friday's closing price.

JPMorgan ( JPM ) declined to comment.

"The premium will also depend on how the succession

happens," said Walter Todd, chief investment officer at

Greenwood Capital Associates, which manages $1.7 billion in

assets, including JPMorgan ( JPM ) shares. "If it is unexpectedly, then

it could be the tune of 10% or more... If it is a more

well-thought out, gradual plan, then the premium could be

lower."

Analysts and investors say the "Jamie premium" has grown in

recent years, helped by the bank's steady performance and its

lack of major regulatory problems. It is also believed to be

higher than those commanded by his peers, three investors said.

Earlier this year, Dimon announced that his timeline for

stepping down is no longer five years and could be as soon as

two-and-a-half years, putting the spotlight on succession.

Focus on the issue has also grown after Dimon had cancer in 2014

and emergency heart surgery in 2020.

JPMorgan Chase's ( JPM ) board and CEO are focused on succession

planning, spending a lot of time thinking about what happens

after he retires.

"We'll do the right thing," Dimon told investors at a

conference this month. "It's the last and most important thing

I'll ever deal with, and we all want to get that exactly right."

Dimon has run JPMorgan ( JPM ) for 18 years and is one of the most

influential figures in corporate America. The 68-year-old is

seen as a key force behind its record profits, market share

gains and performance that consistently beats rivals.

Under his leadership, JPMorgan ( JPM ) became the largest bank in

the U.S. by assets in 2008 when it bought Washington Mutual,

once the nation's largest savings and loan institution, during

the global financial crisis.

Dimon is also the only bank CEO among the six largest U.S.

lenders to have been at the helm during that crisis.

When last year's regional banking turmoil threatened to

destabilize the industry, Dimon acquired First Republic and made

the nation's biggest lender even bigger.

'AVOID SUCH DRAMA'

Born to a Greek family in the New York borough of Queens,

Dimon earned his bachelor's degree from Tufts University and an

MBA from Harvard Business School.

Under the tutelage of former Citigroup CEO Sandy Weill,

Dimon cemented his reputation as a savvy operator and strict

cost-cutter while working at various institutions. Weill later

ousted his protégé from Citi after the men clashed, and Dimon

struck out on his own. He later became the CEO of Bank One.

Dimon often warns JPMorgan ( JPM ) executives against the dangers of

complacency and pushes them to excel, five executives said

privately. He has also emphasized the importance of succession

planning.

"Poor CEO succession has destroyed many a company," Dimon

wrote in a letter to shareholders published in 2010.

"CEO and management succession often seems more like a

psychological drama or a Shakespearean tragedy than the reasoned

and mature process it should be," he wrote at the time. "It is

in our best interest to avoid such drama."

As the Nov. 5 presidential election nears, Dimon has been

floated for senior positions on U.S. economic policy, such as

Treasury secretary. He was praised by former president Donald

Trump and spoke with Vice President Kamala Harris earlier this

month. Despite opining on what qualities the next president

should possess, Dimon has not publicly endorsed either

candidate.

JPMorgan ( JPM ) plans to split the CEO and chairman jobs, currently

held by Dimon, after he eventually steps down, according to its

proxy statement.

The board could line up an executive chairman role for

Dimon, echoing a move by Morgan Stanley to retain former chief

James Gorman during Ted Pick's first year as CEO.

Some analysts expect Dimon to stay at the helm until 2026,

when he stands to gain a retention award of 1.5 million options

in the form of stock appreciation rights.

After a two-decade run as "probably the most well-regarded

bank chief... (2026) could be seen as a reasonable time to pass

the baton," said Brian Mulberry, client portfolio manager at

Zacks Investment Management.

'DEEP BENCH'

Dimon has cited a cadre of "extremely qualified" executives

who are prepared to run the lender once he leaves.

Directors have identified Jennifer Piepszak and Troy

Rohrbaugh, co-CEOs of its commercial and investment bank, and

Marianne Lake, CEO of consumer and community banking as

potential contenders for the top job. Mary Erdoes, who heads the

asset and wealth management businesses, is also in the running.

The bank's president, Daniel Pinto, "could run the bank

tomorrow," Dimon has also said.

"The market has often touted Lake and Piepszak as

frontrunners and they are both very well regarded by the

investment community," HSBC ( HSBC ) analyst Saul Martinez said. Both

women have served as finance chief at the bank.

Indeed, JPMorgan ( JPM ) could be the next major U.S. bank to have a

woman CEO after Citigroup in 2021 became the first to do

so when it appointed CEO Jane Fraser.

JPMorgan ( JPM ) has sought to build diversity in its ranks for

decades, even though it says gender has not been a specific

factor in CEO selection.

"The bank has a deep bench and the potential CEOs are all

very competent" because they have run its businesses, said

Macrae Sykes, a portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, which owns

JPMorgan ( JPM ) stock. "But it is possible that the board could

consider an outsider."

Still, Dimon's departure will cast a long shadow.

Sykes cited Apple ( AAPL ) co-founder Steve Jobs as an

example of a company whose success is closely tied to a key

figure. Apple's ( AAPL ) stock fell after Jobs' death because he was seen

as instrumental to its success.

"Investors knew that Jobs was unwell and the stock did

react... but since then, and under the new management, it has

been on an upward trajectory as the upheaval settled," he added.

Analysts have also compared Dimon's leadership to that of

Warren Buffett, the 94-year-old billionaire chief of Berkshire

Hathaway ( BRK/A ), because both leaders are so closely identified with

the success of their companies.

Indeed JPMorgan's ( JPM ) fortunes have surged under his leadership

- its profit jumped to a record in the second quarter after it

brought in its highest-ever annual earnings last year.

The stock has climbed almost 24% so far in 2024,

outperforming an index of broader U.S. bank shares that rose

nearly 19%.

The lender raised its outlook for net interest income -- or

the difference between what it earns on loans and pays out on

deposits -- this year, and also boosted its dividend. It will

report third-quarter earnings on Oct. 11.