April 18 (Reuters) - Prospects are poor for First

Quantum Minerals ( FQVLF ) to recover its canceled concession for

a lucrative copper mine after presidential elections in May, a

Reuters review of the campaigns' proposals and interviews with

protest leaders show.

Protests against First Quantum's concession demanding

greater environmental guarantees and transparency in

negotiations made authorities not only annul its contract to

operate one of the world's largest and newest copper mines but

ban all new metal mining permits last year.

Metal traders and investors are closely watching the

election outcome to see if a new president could help revive

mining in Panama.

Eight candidates are set to appear on the May 5 ballot, with

polls showing a tight race. Among the five frontrunners, three

have vowed to continue with the plans to close the Cobre Panama

mine, one has pledged a referendum on the matter and another has

not formally indicated his intentions.

The Canadian miner lost nearly half of its market value

after it was stripped of its contract and in March global rating

agency Fitch downgraded Panama's sovereign bonds to speculative

grade, citing fiscal and governance challenges aggravated by the

mine's closure.

Asked about its expectations for the mine after the vote, a

spokesperson for First Quantum said only: "As in any

jurisdiction we operate in, we look forward to seeing the

process of democracy deliver the candidate of Panama's choice in

a fair, transparent and peaceful election."

Reuters spoke to leaders from five different protesters'

groups. Three groups, including the country's main workers'

union SUNTRACS, said there was no scenario under which they

would let authorities seal a new partnership with First Quantum.

"People already showed on the streets they don't want metal

mining," Saul Mendez, head of SUNTRACS, said.

Two groups said they would support a referendum on the

matter, and predicted the result would be against mining. A

survey published by local newspaper La Prensa in February showed

90% of Panamanians oppose mining.

All five groups expressed their distrust towards candidates,

even the ones who have outright opposed mining, saying that

politicians do not tend to fulfill their promises.

"If the incoming president opens that mine without

authorization from the whole country, of course we're going back

to the streets and to the sea," Sabino Ayarza, a representative

of the fishing flotilla that halted First Quantum's operations

by blocking its main port, told Reuters.

"And we're going with other thoughts. We are no longer going

passively as before, but aggressively to close that."

Reuters also spoke to six legal experts in Panama who said

that while local laws could technically allow First Quantum's

prospects to change in a matter of months, a referendum or

another type of consultation to ensure public support would be

the only way to achieve that politically.

First Quantum said in February it was seeking $20 billion

through international arbitration over Panama's order to close

the mine. The miner has filed for two arbitration proceedings,

one under the Canada-Panama Free Trade Agreement, and another

linked to the arbitration clause on the canceled contract. The

clause provides for proceedings in Miami, according to the

company.

Panama's deputy finance minister told Reuters days after the

announcement that the country is ready to defend its interests

in the legal battle against First Quantum, adding the state will

prove to courts it respects foreign investment.

Renzo Merino from Moody's sovereign team said Panama's

economy was already doing well before the mine began to extract

copper. "Panama hasn't lost that. It still has the potential,"

he said, while warning a recovery could be slow if investor

concerns spread to other sectors and the country is forced to

pay compensation in arbitration.

PRESIDENTIAL FRONTRUNNERS

Mining has not been a big campaign issue.

Among the five frontrunners, Jose Raul Mulino, who is

leading the latest polls, does not mention mining in his

government plan and he has not attended any presidential

debates.

Former President and candidate Martin Torrijos, who has been

among the top three candidates in many polls, does not mention

intentions for mining in his government plan, though he told

Reuters at a campaign event that the closure of the mine is a

decision Panamanians already took and he plans to follow.

Romulo Roux vowed in his plan to press ahead with closing

the mine, but did not mention anything about the future of

mining. He was not available for an interview but his running

mate, Jose Blandon, told Reuters at an event that his team has

no plans to overturn the mining ban.

Current vice president and presidential candidate Jose

Gabriel Carrizo's proposal for the country calls for a public

vote for Panamanians to decide on the future of mining.

The campaigns of candidates Mulino, Roux, and Carrizo did

not make them available for interview for this story.

Panama's ban on new metal mining concessions pushed up

copper prices due to fears about supply. Any hint of a shift in

Panama could again move markets.

Candidate Ricardo Lombana, who has been moving between

second and fourth place in the latest polls, went further in his

government plan by proposing to change the constitution to ban

mining outright.

"No economic impact is above the constitutional mandate and

the sovereign will. The whole country knows that the concession

contract is illegal and that its closure must be consummated,"

Lombana told Reuters.