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Ford Projects Annual Decline in Profitability Despite Fourth-Quarter Beat
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Ford Projects Annual Decline in Profitability Despite Fourth-Quarter Beat
Feb 6, 2025 4:06 AM

06:43 AM EST, 02/06/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Ford Motor ( F ) shares declined early Thursday as the automaker projected lower profitability in 2025 on a year-over-year basis amid market headwinds despite reporting fourth-quarter results above Wall Street's estimates.

Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes are anticipated to come in between $7 billion and $8.5 billion for the current year, compared with the $10.2 billion recorded in 2024, the auto manufacturer said late Wednesday. The company expects adjusted EBIT to be roughly breakeven in the ongoing quarter due to lower wholesales and unfavorable mix, including launch activities at its assemblies in Kentucky and Michigan.

The stock fell 6% in premarket activity.

"Our full-year outlook assumes headwinds related to market factors," Vice President of Finance Sherry House, who will become chief financial officer of Ford, effective Thursday, said during an earnings call, according to a FactSet transcript. "We're planning for lower industry pricing of roughly 2%, driven by higher incentive spending throughout the year."

On Monday, US President Donald Trump paused the proposed tariffs announced last week of 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada for a month, as the countries engage in negotiations. The precise impact of these new tariffs will depend on a "number of secondary and tertiary effects" such as price elasticities and possible duty drawbacks, while other potential policy changes to the consumer and production tax credits "could be harmful," according to House.

"There's no question that tariffs at 25% level from Canada and Mexico, if they're protracted, would have a huge impact on our industry with billions of dollars of industry profits wiped out and adverse effect on the US jobs, as well as the entire value system in our industry," Chief Executive Jim Farley said on the call. "Tariffs would also mean higher prices for customers."

For the full year 2025, Ford forecasts adjusted free cash flow of $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion versus last year's $6.7 billion, as well as capital expenditures of $8 billion to $9 billion. The automaker is looking to generate more than $1 billion in net cost reductions and expects the majority of these savings to come in the second half of the year, House told analysts.

The company reported adjusted earnings of $0.39 a share for the three-month period ended December, up from $0.29 the year before, topping the FactSet-polled consensus of $0.34. Revenue improved 5% year over year to $48.2 billion, ahead of the Street's view for $47.4 billion.

Revenue advanced 4% and 6% in the company's Ford Blue and Ford Pro divisions, respectively, but sunk 11% in its electric vehicle segment. Wholesale production inclined 3% from last year to around 1.2 million.

For the Ford Model e segment, the company expects an EBIT loss of $5 billion to $5.5 billion in 2025, "holding losses stable year-over-year," House said on the call. "While continued industry pricing pressure remains, we plan to materially increase our global volume driven by the full year impact of European launches, and we significantly increased investment in our battery facilities and next-generation products," House added.

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