09:27 AM EDT, 10/14/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The price of Ford Motor's ( F ) flagship vehicle, the F-150 pickup, could rise meaningfully after a three-alarm fire in September destroyed a large portion of a factory the automaker relies on for its aluminum.

Hindalco reported on Sept. 17 that a fire occurred the night before at its subsidiary's aluminum plant in Oswego, New York. The fire destroyed the plant's hot-rolling mill, which supplies 40% of the aluminum sheets used by US automakers, with Ford being its biggest customer, according to industry analysts.

The F-150 is the top-selling vehicle in the US and one of the auto industry's biggest users of aluminum after the company switched the truck's exterior to the lighter metal from steel more than 10 years ago, according to media reports.

In the wake of the fire, Ford has been working to preserve the aluminum it currently has while also attempting to secure sheets from alternative sources. The automaker is pausing production this week at its Dearborn, Michigan plant that makes the F-150 Lightning electric pickup as a result of the fire, Reuters reported Oct. 8, citing a union official at the plant.

"They're stopping F-150 Lightning production to conserve that [aluminum] supply for the more profitable business because they don't make any money on the F-150 Lightning, so they don't want to use that aluminum for that vehicle," said Steve Man, Bloomberg Intelligence automobiles and industrials analyst, in an interview with MT Newswires.

Ford said in a statement to Reuters and The Wall Street Journal last week that Novelis, the Hindalco unit that owns the factory, is not its only aluminum supplier. The company said it's working with Novelis and exploring alternatives to minimize potential disruptions. Ford didn't immediately reply to a request for comment from MT Newswires.

One alternative for Ford and other automakers is to import aluminum from abroad, Man said. Novelis has "a number of hot rolling mills in a number of plants around the world," he said. "I'm pretty sure they can actually adjust to satisfy the demands of Ford and other automakers because the last thing they want to do is lose business or have the automakers go out and start talking to other aluminum suppliers."

But importing aluminum will come at a cost for the automakers and their customers, especially after President Donald Trump raised the tariff on aluminum imports to 50% in June.

"A 50% on imported aluminum equivalent to Novelis' output could raise costs about $45 per US car and $76 for Ford pickups -- likely to be passed on to customers," Man said in an Oct. 7 note.

In his subsequent interview with MT Newswires, the Bloomberg Intelligence analyst revised his import-related cost estimate for Ford pickups upward due in part to the amount of aluminum Ford trucks require.

"If they're using that much aluminum for the F-150, the cost is going to be much higher" than $76 per truck, Man said. "It's going to be hundreds of dollars, and, worse case, you lose a sale."

Moreover, importing the aluminum on ships will take about a month, impacting costs and contributing to production delays, the analyst said.

"They are going to slow down [production], and there will be an earnings impact," Man said. "They'll most likely broadcast that at their next earnings call."

Ford shares dropped more than 6% on Oct. 7, the day The Wall Street Journal broke the story that the fire is expected to disrupt production, before bottoming on Friday down 10%.

Evercore ISI analyst Chris McNally said Oct. 8 in a note he believes the fire could make a $500 million to $1 billion impact on Ford's earnings before interest and taxes, or a roughly $0.10 to $0.20 hit to earnings per share. That "would imply a $1.50-2.00 hit to Ford stock with the stock down 78 [cents] or 6% yesterday," he said.

The sharp selloff reflected not only investor concerns over the fire but also unease over the recent expiration of federal electric vehicle tax credits and rising warranty costs, according to Man.

"The earnings have been under pressure on the warranty and the losses on EV sales, and the margins on the gasoline cars were actually coming down. Now they have this plant fire and it's like, 'What else can go wrong?'," Man said.