NEW YORK, March 6 (Reuters) - Bets on lower interest

rates in the United States, even with a cloudy outlook, were

behind a fourth consecutive month of overall foreign net flows

to emerging markets in February, the Institute of International

Finance said on Wednesday.

The IIF banking trade group said non-residents sent about

$22.2 billion into emerging market debt and equity portfolios

last month, with China posting its largest inflow to equities

since January 2023. The overall figure compares with inflows of

$35.9 billion in January and $14.5 billion in February of 2023.

Positive flows returned to Chinese equities with a bang as

$9.6 billion went to accounts, the most in over a year. Yet

Chinese debt posted a $6.5 billion outflow, marking negative

flows in eight of the previous 12 months.

China's blue-chip index touched a five year low in

early February, enticing investors who bet that a stubborn

property crisis and local government debt woes would pressure

China's leaders to come up with new economic policies.

Yet the market's reception to Beijing's economic roadmap

outlined this week at the National People's Congress has been

muted, as concern remains over the lack of policy details and

future stimulus steps. The NPC runs through March 11.

A resilient U.S. economy and job market have relieved any

pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

A month ago, traders were pricing in a Fed rate cut by the

end of its meeting in early May, with that probability now down

to 1-in-5 according to the CME FedWatch tool. A cut in mid-June

is 70% priced in, down from about 97% a month ago.

"While we see more ambiguity in a dovish pivot by the Fed,

we see investors already positioning themselves for a cut in

rates. This pivot should benefit mainly EM debt issuance," IIF

economist Jonathan Fortun said via a statement.

Continued progress on lowering inflation "is not assured"

though the Fed still expects to reduce its benchmark interest

rate later this year, chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday.

Equity portfolios in emerging markets ex-China posted a $7.6

billion inflow and ex-China debt saw a $11.5 billion inflow, the

data showed.

Debt flows to India were positive for an 11th month running,

nearing $13 billion since April 2023.