Aug 9 (Reuters) -
India has become the next big bet for PepsiCo ( PEP ), Unilever ( UL ) and
other packaged goods giants looking to fill the growth vacuum
left by an uneven recovery in China.
With India's economy expanding at the fastest pace among
major emerging markets, companies are trying to serve its
diverse palette by launching new flavors and size variants aimed
at attracting the country's vast population and untapped rural
market.
"While the last decade had companies focused on selling
into China, the next decade is about selling into India," said
Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.
"You have to go where the demographic and economic tailwinds
are at your back."
Major consumer goods companies based in India, the world's
most populous country, are expecting higher government spending,
a better monsoon season and a resurgence in private consumption
to help consumer spending recover in the coming quarters.
That is expected to boost the combined market share of the
top five multinational companies - Coca-Cola, P&G, PepsiCo ( PEP ),
Unilever ( UL ) and Reckitt - to 20.53% in 2023 from 19.27% in 2022,
mainly in the baby care, consumer health, cosmetics, beverage
and household categories, according to research firm GlobalData.
Their total market share in China is forecast to shrink to
4.30% in 2023 from 4.37% in 2022, the data showed.
"China went through a long and extended COVID ... they
even went through a brief period of negative growth, and after
this, growth has been very sluggish. In comparison to that, the
growth rate in India hovering around 4% seems like a healthy
growth for total fast-moving consumer goods," said K
Ramakrishnan, Managing Director, South Asia, at Kantar's
Worldpanel Division.
Both the urban and rural segments in India have seen growth,
but rural has fared a little better, he said.
Consumer goods companies have also been pumping money into
India with launches like PepsiCo's ( PEP ) Kurkure Chaat Fills,
Coca-Cola's packaging upgrades to increase the shelf-life of its
products and Nestle's plans to introduce its premium coffee
brand Nespresso at year-end.
As a result, Coca-Cola's household penetration in India
increased by 24% for the 12 months ended June, PepsiCo's ( PEP ) by
12.7%, Nestle's by 6.7% and Reckitt's about 3.8%, data from
Kantar showed.
Mondelez International ( MDLZ ) is partnering with the Lotus
Biscoff cookie brand to sell its products, and plans to launch
new Oreo pack sizes this month. The company reported a
mid-single-digit percentage growth in the chocolate category in
India in the second quarter.
Coca-Cola also posted double-digit volume growth in
India, while Unilever ( UL ) recorded sequential improvement
in the country. PepsiCo's ( PEP ) Africa, Middle East and South
Asia region reported a rise, with the company expecting India to
be the "big growth space" there.
The results contrast muted volume growth in the region last
year for most of these companies.
On the flip side, China has seen feeble demand.
KitKat maker Nestle reported a fall in total sales
in the Greater China region in the latest quarter and said
overall economic and consumer sentiment there was "clearly
weaker than expected".
"China has always been considered kind of the darling of
growth for investors, but as we have seen that bloom is off the
rose there," said Don Nesbitt, senior portfolio manager at F/m
Investments.