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Brandenburg holds election a year before federal vote

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Eastern state is traditional stronghold of Scholz's SPD

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AfD win could heap pressure on Scholz over second term

By Sarah Marsh

BERLIN, Sept 22 (Reuters) - The far-right Alternative

for Germany (AfD) is predicted to come first in an election in

Brandenburg on Sunday, seeking to build on gains in other

eastern states this month and beat Chancellor Olaf Scholz's

Social Democrats in a traditional stronghold.

The AfD became the first far-right party to win a state

election in Germany since World War Two, in Thuringia, on Sept.

1 and just missed first place in Saxony.

It is one of several far-right groups in Europe capitalising

on worries over an economic slowdown, immigration and the

Ukraine war - concerns that are particularly strong in formerly

Communist-run eastern Germany.

The party, which is unlikely to be able to govern because it

is polling short of a majority and other parties would refuse to

work with it, is also seeking to gain from discontent over

infighting in Scholz's three-party federal coalition.

"We urgently need a thorough course correction so the

country does not go to the dogs," the AfD's lead candidate in

Brandenburg, Hans-Christoph Berndt, said at a campaign event

earlier this month.

An AfD victory in the state election would be a particular

embarrassment for the Social Democrats (SPD), which has won

elections in Brandenburg and governed the state of 2.5 million

people since reunification in 1990.

It would also raise further questions about the suitability

of Scholz, the least popular German chancellor on record, to

lead the party into next year's election.

Brandenburg's popular SPD premier Dietmar Woidke has mostly

shunned campaigning with Scholz, who lives in the state's

capital, Potsdam. In an unusual move, Woidke has also criticised

the behaviour and policies of the ruling coalition.

Instead, he has sought to highlight economic success stories

during the five years since the last state election such as the

opening of a Tesla factory and Brandenburg airport -

which serves Berlin and is now Germany's third most important

aviation hub.

NARROW THE GAP

In recent weeks, the SPD has managed to narrow the gap with

the AfD, opinion polls have shown.

A poll published by pollster Forschungsgruppe Wahlen on

Thursday put the AfD on 28% in Brandenburg with the SPD just one

point behind on 27%, followed by the conservatives on 14% and

the new leftist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) on 13%.

"My greatest challenge in this legislative period ... to not

allow right-wing extremists to have anything to say in this

country ever again," Woidke said at a campaign event on Tuesday.

He has threatened to resign if his party comes in behind the

AfD. AfD party leader Tino Chrupalla said Scholz should do the

same.

"It is high time this government suffer the consequences

after this state election," Chrupalla said.

Both of Scholz's junior coalition partners, the Free

Democrats and the Greens, look set to struggle to win the 5%

needed to enter the state parliament, polls show.

At a national level, the three parties in Scholz's coalition

are now collectively polling less than the opposition

conservatives although political analysts say much could change

before the federal election due in September 2025.