*

Annual global air finance gathering being held in Dublin

*

Supply chains remain snagged following the pandemic

*

Fears that Trump tariffs could impact manufacturers

(Recasts with start of conference; adds Air Lease chairman

paragraph 3-4, SMBC CEO quote paragraph 15)

By Tim Hepher, Joanna Plucinska and Conor Humphries

DUBLIN, Jan 13 (Reuters) -

The world's largest aircraft lessors forecast on Monday that

manufacturing delays would drag on until the end of the decade

at least, keeping prices high and limiting the entry of new

players into an industry that controls half of the world's jets.

The world's top lessors, all among the largest buyers

of Boeing ( BA ) and Airbus aircraft, traded stories of

crippling delays and sky-high lease rates paid by airline

clients at the annual Airline Economics meeting in Ireland,

where most of the industry is based.

"Neither Airbus nor Boeing ( BA ) have been able to meet any -

and I say any - of their production targets. And so the delivery

delays are cascading and have a domino effect," said Steven

Udvar-Hazy, executive chairman of Air Lease and one of the

founders of the leasing industry.

"We don't think that this recovery will be any shorter

than three or four years to get back to normalcy."

Leasing companies have seen rentals and resale values for

jetliners rise as airlines try to meet new demand at the same

time as planemakers are struggling to recover from the COVID-19

pandemic.

For now, that means good profits for lessors and many

airlines, since shortages push up demand and fares. But there

are concerns over access to efficient new aircraft as supply

chains lack parts and labour. Older second-hand planes have been

in strong demand to fill the gap.

"The main question for the industry is the speed at which

manufacturers will be able to ramp up deliveries. That will

determine a lot of other things," said independent aviation

adviser Bertrand Grabowski.

Delegates are split on how long the shortage will last.

"Several lessors and observers think the market can return

to an excess of capacity after three years or so," Grabowski

said. Others believe the removal of some 4,000 jets left unbuilt

during the pandemic will keep airlines short of jets for longer.

Airbus and Boeing ( BA ) did not immediately respond to emails

requesting comment.

Airbus is targeting production of 75 A320-family jets a

month in 2027, having pushed back the goal repeatedly due to

supply woes. Boeing ( BA ) is edging back towards 38 of the competing

737 MAX a month - an interim ceiling imposed by regulators

following the blow-out of a door plug on a 737 MAX a year ago.

TARIFF TALK

Many of the roughly 3,000 delegates heading to the Irish

capital were trying to weigh the potential impact of the change

of power in the United States, a week before President-elect

Donald Trump is sworn in for a second term, with some executives

expressing optimism in his pro-business reputation.

Trump has promised to impose sweeping tariffs, which some

analysts think could affect supply chains of aerospace and other

industries while dampening air cargo demand.

The head of the world's second-largest lessor Avolon, Andy

Cronin, said any impact on supply chains would be "unhelpful" at

a time when airplane factories are struggling to meet demand.

While Avolon surged onto the scene in 2010, going public

four years later, several speakers made the point that the need

for an investment-grade rating and the huge delays in securing

aircraft orders meant that the industry was more likely to

consolidate around a handful of big players.

"It's just a bigger industry. It's more commoditized ...

I think consolidation is inevitable," said Peter Barrett, CEO of

Top 3 lessor SMBC Aviation Capital.

In December, airlines body IATA predicted record passenger

numbers in 2025, with revenues set to reach more than a trillion

dollars. But a recovery of travel from China and by business

travellers has been slower than expected.