*

Tracker finds more than $35 billion in profit, sales,

other hits

*

Toyota's ( TM ) $9.5 billion forecast is the biggest hit

*

Trump's threat of new China tariffs renews uncertainty

By Deborah Mary Sophia and Arpan Varghese

Oct 20 (Reuters) - Global companies have flagged more

than $35 billion in costs from U.S. tariffs heading into

third-quarter earnings, but many are lowering their initial

forecasts as new trade deals reduce exposure to President Donald

Trump's levies.

Trump's trade war has hiked U.S. tariffs to their highest

levels since the 1930s, and the president has regularly

threatened more duties, but overall, the fog that paralyzed many

businesses is clearing, allowing executives to forecast costs

and make plans - including some price hikes.

Companies expected a combined financial hit of $21.0 billion

to $22.9 billion for 2025, with an impact of nearly $15 billion

calculated for 2026, according to a Reuters analysis of hundreds

of corporate statements, regulatory filings and earnings calls

between July 16 and September 30.

The total of more than $35 billion compares with $34 billion

tallied in May, shortly after Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs

in April rattled global supply chains. But the trajectory masks

a shift: the increase is largely due to Toyota's ( TM ) $9.5

billion estimate. Many other companies have lowered their

earlier worst-case forecasts after Trump reached lower-rate

trade deals with the EU and Japan. The figures combine annual

and partial-year estimates from an overlapping group of firms.

Both groups include about 60 firms.

French spirits makers Remy Cointreau and Pernod

Ricard both lowered estimates of tariff pain after

the EU deal, while Sony ( SONY ) in August cut its forecast.

Trump also carved out exceptions, with only about a third of

Brazil's exports facing a 50% tariff, for instance.

"Tariffs are getting clearer and clearer. And we believe that

tariffs will be just another variable of our business equation

that we need to be ready to manage, and we will," Stellantis ( STLA )

CEO Antonio Filosa told Reuters in a mid-October

interview, introducing new details of a $13 billion, four-year

investment in U.S. manufacturing. Stellantis ( STLA ) in July warned of a

1.5 billion-euro hit from U.S. tariffs this year.

"I think there is this sense that we reached a kind of

landing point with some of the bilateral trade deals," said

International Chamber of Commerce Deputy Secretary General

Andrew Wilson.

"But there will continue to be much greater complexity and

this massive uncertainty."

Case in point: Trump earlier this month floated the idea of

additional 100% tariffs on China. On Friday, he said the

proposed tariffs would not be sustainable, and blamed Beijing

for the latest tensions in trade talks between the two

countries.

CONSUMER AND MANUFACTURING HIT HARDEST

S&P 500 companies are projected to show an earnings growth

rate of 9.3% in the July-September period, a decline from 13.8%

in the second quarter, according to LSEG data. Much of that is

on the back of the U.S. IT sector, driven by AI investment.

Europe's Stoxx 600 is expected to clock 0.5% growth, down from

4% in the previous quarter.

The pain is concentrated on companies that depend on

countries that do not have trade deals.

Nike ( NKE ), heavily dependent on suppliers in Vietnam and

other Asian countries, raised its tariff impact estimate late

last month to $1.5 billion from $1 billion. In Europe, Tefal

kitchen-ware maker SEB recently cut its profit

outlook, citing weaker demand as customers adopted a

wait-and-see attitude partly due to tariffs, while H&M

cautioned that U.S. tariffs on imports would weigh more heavily

on margins in the quarter through November.

"We are cautious about the U.S. heading into the fourth

quarter, both connected to the impact of tariffs on the gross

margin but equally also the consumer sentiment," H&M CEO Daniel

Erver told Reuters. "We can see the price increases."

Price increases are the most frequent effect of tariffs

cited by companies in the Reuters tracker.

Carmakers including Ford, Stellantis ( STLA ), Volkswagen

and Toyota ( TM ) collectively have reported billions in tariff-related

costs. Ford, for instance, is expecting a cumulative $3 billion

impact.

Still, optimism has ticked up among automakers and auto parts

suppliers as Trump has moved toward significant tariff relief

for U.S. auto production that could effectively eliminate many

of the costs that have hit top car companies.

Drug makers also have started rolling out deals on drug pricing

and manufacturing that are tied to U.S. tariff exemptions.

Pfizer ( PFE ) and AstraZeneca ( AZN ) have led the way, and

others are expected to follow.

​

​

​