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Global Monetary Policy in Limbo as Analysts Say Trump's Tariffs to Hurt Growth, Raise Inflation
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Global Monetary Policy in Limbo as Analysts Say Trump's Tariffs to Hurt Growth, Raise Inflation
Apr 3, 2025 4:20 AM

06:50 AM EDT, 04/03/2025 (MT Newswires) -- US President Donald Trump's sweeping new tariffs on the country's trading partners are likely to impact global economic growth and inflation, possibly complicating monetary policy around the world, according to analysts.

Trump on Wednesday announced duties on imports from several nations, including China and Japan, in an attempt to boost US manufacturing and ensure "the national and economic security" of the country. A 10% base tariff rate takes effect for all countries on April 5, according to a White House announcement, though there will be additional duties that vary by country.

Trump set reciprocal tariffs of 34% on Chinese goods and 24% on Japanese items, while European Union goods coming into the world's largest economy will get charged 20%. Varying levels of tariffs will be imposed on Vietnam, Taiwan and India, among other countries.

"That is a significant negative terms of trade shock to the US and global economies that will harm growth, harm employment, and raise prices -- thus complicating the outlook for monetary policy in major economies," Scotiabank said in a note emailed late Wednesday.

In a separate note, ING said the tariffs currently equate to around $600 billion as Trump hopes to use these to fund tax cuts and encourage companies to transfer their manufacturing operations to the US. However, they are unlikely to address short-term concerns of falling production and rising inflation, according to ING.

The duties are set to put the Federal Reserve in a difficult situation, ING Chief International Economist James Knightley wrote in the Wednesday note. "It will want to support the economy with rate cuts, but uncertainty over how long inflation may persist is likely to lead them to hesitate," Knightley said.

Canada and Mexico were "relatively spared" from a potentially worse outcome, but still face sector-specific tariffs, Scotiabank Economics Head of Capital Markets Economics Derek Holt said. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the country will announce countermeasures, Reuters reported.

Oxford Economics now estimates US gross domestic product growth at 1.4% for the current year, down from 2% in its March baseline. Core inflation is pegged at 3.9% for 2025, up from the 3.1% baseline forecast.

"Odds are that not all these tariffs will remain in place later this year, but many will likely be permanent," Oxford Chief US Economist Ryan Sweet. "These aren't just based on tariffs that trading partners impose on the US, but factor in currency manipulation and trade barriers."

Shares of major technology companies, including Apple ( AAPL ) and Nvidia ( NVDA ) , were down in premarket activity Thursday. Apple ( AAPL ) makes all of its iPhones in China, while Nvidia ( NVDA ) and other chip players with significant exposure to China and Taiwan supply chains will be worried around pricing and margin impacts, according to Wedbush Securities.

Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real GDP increased at a 2.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, slightly faster than previously forecast. Recent US government data showed that the Fed's preferred core personal consumption expenditure measure, which excludes food and energy, accelerated to 2.8% in February from the previous month's 2.7% growth.

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