(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs ( GS ) forecast that Brent and WTI crude prices would be at $62 a barrel and $58 by December 2025 and at $55 and $51 by December 2026, respectively, under two assumptions.

The bank, in a note dated April 7, said that the first assumption is the U.S. economy avoids a recession given a large reduction in tariffs, which are scheduled to take effect on April 9. Second, supply from eight OPEC+ countries rises moderately with two final increments of 130,000-140,000 barrels each in June-July

However, the bank noted that in a typical U.S. recession and their OPEC baseline scenario, they estimate that Brent would decline to $58 by December 2025, and $50 by December 2026, respectively.

Goldman Sachs ( GS ) said oil prices would likely exceed their forecast under a very sharp reversal in tariff policy.

On Monday, Goldman Sachs ( GS ) revised down its annual average price forecasts again for Brent and WTI crude in 2026, citing increased recession risks and the possibility of higher-than-expected OPEC+ supply.

U.S. President Donald Trump ramped up tariff threats against China on Monday, while the European Union outlined plans for retaliatory duties, deepening fears of a drawn-out trade war that could tip the global economy into recession.

Goldman said in a global GDP slowdown scenario and keeping their OPEC baseline unchanged, Brent was estimated to decline to $54 by December 2025 and to $45 by December 2026.

Goldman estimates that, in a more extreme and less likely scenario where both a global GDP slowdown and a full unwind of OPEC+ cuts occur, which would discipline non-OPEC supply, Brent prices would fall to just under $40 per barrel by late 2026.

Brent crude was trading around $64.72 a barrel, as of 0603 GMT on Tuesday, while WTI was at $61.26.[O/R]