By Manya Saini and Niket Nishant
March 8 (Reuters) - New York Community Bancorp's ( NYCB )
turnaround will likely take a long time as analysts
expect profits to remain under pressure from the lender's
efforts to boost reserves for potential bad loans in its
commercial real estate portfolio.
This week's $1.05 billion capital raise has helped stem the
rout in its stock and assuage near-term worries, but exposure to
New York's rent-controlled multi-family properties - apartment
buildings with more than four units - remains an overhang.
The trouble at the bank captured in six graphics:
CRE CONCENTRATION
Loans tied to multi-family properties, NYCB's primary focus
for five decades, made up 44% of its $84.6 billion portfolio as
of Dec. 31. Nearly 8.3% of such loans were "criticized", meaning
at higher risk of default, the bank disclosed in January.
"We are somewhat encouraged that overall credit quality
trends could remain manageable in the near-term, though we would
expect the company to seriously examine reserve levels for
adequacy," analysts at RBC Capital Markets said in a note.
The multi-family portfolio includes properties subject to
rent control regulations, which limit landlords' freedom to
increase rents at a time when borrowing rates remain high.
Office loans accounted for 4% of the total portfolio, NYCB
said. More than half of the office portfolio is in Manhattan,
where the vacancy rate is 15%, according to Moody's.
LOAN LOSS PROVISIONS
The bank's credit loss provisions jumped more than four
times to $552 million in the fourth quarter versus the year-ago
quarter. But, analysts say it will need to build reserves
further to cover the risk of more loans souring, especially CRE.
NYCB's current loan loss reserve ratio - a measure of
reserves against total loans - for CRE appears low at 1.4%,
Raymond James analyst Steven Moss said. Its peers have a median
ratio of 2.48%, he added.
The key question now is whether this week's capital raise is
enough "to manage through the challenges within the loan
portfolio that still lie ahead," J.P. Morgan's Steven
Alexopoulos, who covers NYCB, said in a note.
DEPOSIT OUTFLOW
NYCB disclosed this week that it had lost $5.8 billion, or
7%, of deposits over the last month. The bank's recent woes,
which included a massive surprise goodwill impairment, could
also lead to higher deposit costs and squeeze its net interest
margins, analysts said.
Still, NYCB's uninsured deposits are relatively low at
nearly 20%. D.A. Davidson analyst Peter Winter said the 7%
deposit fall was less than expected "given all the turmoil" as
well as several credit rating downgrades.
Silicon Valley Bank and the two others who failed last year,
in contrast, had higher levels of uninsured deposits.
STOCK PERFORMANCE
NYCB's shares have lost nearly two-thirds of their value
following a sell-off after the bank's dismal Jan. 31 earnings
report and a 70% cut to its dividend.
Souring investor sentiment has also hammered the KBW
Regional Banking Index, which is down 7.3% over the same
period.
The stock will likely remain around current levels until
investors get more clarity on the state of the bank's
multi-family loan book, Raymond James' Moss said.