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GRAPHIC-NYCB turnaround faces rocky road as commercial real estate exposure a drag
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GRAPHIC-NYCB turnaround faces rocky road as commercial real estate exposure a drag
Mar 8, 2024 9:16 AM

By Manya Saini and Niket Nishant

March 8 (Reuters) - New York Community Bancorp's ( NYCB )

turnaround will likely take a long time as analysts

expect profits to remain under pressure from the lender's

efforts to boost reserves for potential bad loans in its

commercial real estate portfolio.

This week's $1.05 billion capital raise has helped stem the

rout in its stock and assuage near-term worries, but exposure to

New York's rent-controlled multi-family properties - apartment

buildings with more than four units - remains an overhang.

The trouble at the bank captured in six graphics:

CRE CONCENTRATION

Loans tied to multi-family properties, NYCB's primary focus

for five decades, made up 44% of its $84.6 billion portfolio as

of Dec. 31. Nearly 8.3% of such loans were "criticized", meaning

at higher risk of default, the bank disclosed in January.

"We are somewhat encouraged that overall credit quality

trends could remain manageable in the near-term, though we would

expect the company to seriously examine reserve levels for

adequacy," analysts at RBC Capital Markets said in a note.

The multi-family portfolio includes properties subject to

rent control regulations, which limit landlords' freedom to

increase rents at a time when borrowing rates remain high.

Office loans accounted for 4% of the total portfolio, NYCB

said. More than half of the office portfolio is in Manhattan,

where the vacancy rate is 15%, according to Moody's.

LOAN LOSS PROVISIONS

The bank's credit loss provisions jumped more than four

times to $552 million in the fourth quarter versus the year-ago

quarter. But, analysts say it will need to build reserves

further to cover the risk of more loans souring, especially CRE.

NYCB's current loan loss reserve ratio - a measure of

reserves against total loans - for CRE appears low at 1.4%,

Raymond James analyst Steven Moss said. Its peers have a median

ratio of 2.48%, he added.

The key question now is whether this week's capital raise is

enough "to manage through the challenges within the loan

portfolio that still lie ahead," J.P. Morgan's Steven

Alexopoulos, who covers NYCB, said in a note.

DEPOSIT OUTFLOW

NYCB disclosed this week that it had lost $5.8 billion, or

7%, of deposits over the last month. The bank's recent woes,

which included a massive surprise goodwill impairment, could

also lead to higher deposit costs and squeeze its net interest

margins, analysts said.

Still, NYCB's uninsured deposits are relatively low at

nearly 20%. D.A. Davidson analyst Peter Winter said the 7%

deposit fall was less than expected "given all the turmoil" as

well as several credit rating downgrades.

Silicon Valley Bank and the two others who failed last year,

in contrast, had higher levels of uninsured deposits.

STOCK PERFORMANCE

NYCB's shares have lost nearly two-thirds of their value

following a sell-off after the bank's dismal Jan. 31 earnings

report and a 70% cut to its dividend.

Souring investor sentiment has also hammered the KBW

Regional Banking Index, which is down 7.3% over the same

period.

The stock will likely remain around current levels until

investors get more clarity on the state of the bank's

multi-family loan book, Raymond James' Moss said.

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