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GRAPHIC-Take Five: Who started it? 
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GRAPHIC-Take Five: Who started it? 
Oct 17, 2025 12:08 AM

LONDON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. government shutdown

extends into another week, earnings season is in full swing,

U.S./China trade tensions are tense and there's plenty of data

to mull over.

Japan's parliament meanwhile may vote on a new prime

minister and Bolivia holds a key election.

Here's all you need to know about the week ahead in world

markets by Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Rocky Swift in Tokyo and

Amanda Cooper, Naomi Rovnick and Marc Jones in London.

1/ US EARNINGS, INFLATION UPDATE ON WAY

U.S. corporate earnings rev up, with Tesla and

Netflix ( NFLX ), while next week ends with a delayed U.S.

inflation release.

After major banks kicked off Q3 earnings, the coming week

will see reports from an array of industries, including consumer

companies Procter & Gamble ( PG ) and Coca-Cola,

aerospace and defense giant RTX and tech stalwart IBM ( IBM )

.

Investors have also been confronting a government data

blackout due to the federal shutdown that began on October 1.

While key data including the monthly employment report have been

delayed, the government plans to publish September CPI numbers

next Friday, allowing the Social Security Administration to meet

deadlines related to payment of benefits.

The CPI release comes just ahead of the Federal Reserve's

October 28-29 meeting, when the central bank is widely expected

to cut rates by a quarter percentage point.

2/ BIG MOMENT FOR TAKAICHI

Japanese markets await an expected parliamentary vote next

week that may spur another leg up in a record stocks run.

The blue-chip Nikkei hit all-time highs after Sanae

Takaichi, a devotee of the "Abenomics" stimulus policies of the

late Shinzo Abe, won a ruling Liberal Democratic Party election

on October 4.

That's normally a shoo-in to become the prime minister, but

the LDP is weakened. A diet vote to install her as premier has

been delayed after Takaichi failed to heal a rift with a

long-time coalition partner and rival parties tried to team up

to form their own government.

The Nikkei hit a speed bump, and a volatility measure of the

index surged to the highest since April.

Now the Japan Innovation Party has emerged as a possible

saviour after its leader pledged support for Takaichi if the two

sides can agree on policy.

3/ EARLY WARNING SIGNS

It has been six months since U.S. President Donald Trump

unveiled his "Liberation Day" tariffs.

There are trade deals in place and investors and companies

have some certainty. Or at least, they did until recently.

Tensions are flaring again between Washington and Beijing,

prompting tit-for-tat fees on cargo ships and ports, a

tightening on two-way supplies of key tech-sector materials and

parts and a general heating up in rhetoric.

Europe hasn't yet seen evidence of the big spending that

national governments, led by Germany, promised earlier this

year. China is slowing too.

The upcoming surveys of business activity for Germany,

France, the UK, the U.S. and euro zone, among other regions, in

October could start to reflect some of that renewed angst.

4/ STILL HIGH UK INFLATION?

UK inflation data next week could be pivotal for Britain's

gilt markets, sterling and finance minister Rachel Reeves'

ability to limit unpopular tax hikes and spending cuts in her

November 26 budget.

With Britain's fiscal hole widening because of surging debt

payments, Wednesday's September consumer prices report could

fuel rate cut bets and offer Reeves some relief if the

annualised print comes below the Bank of England's 4% forecast.

But a higher-than-expected increase could keep the BoE

cautious and Britain's finances looking precarious, in a threat

to sterling's recent strong run against the dollar.

Gilt markets are exhibiting optimism so far, with UK

borrowing costs falling to over two-month lows as traders priced

a 90% probability of a quarter-point rate cut by February.

5/ VOTING AND VULTURES

Bolivia's presidential election runoff vote on Sunday will

be a historic moment, formally ending almost two decades of

near-continuous socialist rule.

The debt market vultures will be watching closely. The

economy is in deep disarray, with inflation running at nearly

25%, fuel shortages rife and the country's foreign exchange

reserves now barely covering two months of basic imports.

With a meltdown potentially looming, the two candidates in

Sunday's vote are battling over what to do.

Right-wing former President Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, who has

had a narrow lead in recent polls, wants the kind of

chainsaw-style reforms Javier Milei has adopted in neighbouring

Argentina, including potentially a debt writeoff.

Centrist rival Rodrigo Paz, meanwhile, is advocating for a

more gradualist approach, fully aware of the country's long

history of violent unrest at times of economic pain.

(Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe, Graphics by Kripa Jayaram;

Editing by Elaine Hardcastle)

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