LONDON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. government shutdown
extends into another week, earnings season is in full swing,
U.S./China trade tensions are tense and there's plenty of data
to mull over.
Japan's parliament meanwhile may vote on a new prime
minister and Bolivia holds a key election.
Here's all you need to know about the week ahead in world
markets by Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Rocky Swift in Tokyo and
Amanda Cooper, Naomi Rovnick and Marc Jones in London.
1/ US EARNINGS, INFLATION UPDATE ON WAY
U.S. corporate earnings rev up, with Tesla and
Netflix ( NFLX ), while next week ends with a delayed U.S.
inflation release.
After major banks kicked off Q3 earnings, the coming week
will see reports from an array of industries, including consumer
companies Procter & Gamble ( PG ) and Coca-Cola,
aerospace and defense giant RTX and tech stalwart IBM ( IBM )
.
Investors have also been confronting a government data
blackout due to the federal shutdown that began on October 1.
While key data including the monthly employment report have been
delayed, the government plans to publish September CPI numbers
next Friday, allowing the Social Security Administration to meet
deadlines related to payment of benefits.
The CPI release comes just ahead of the Federal Reserve's
October 28-29 meeting, when the central bank is widely expected
to cut rates by a quarter percentage point.
2/ BIG MOMENT FOR TAKAICHI
Japanese markets await an expected parliamentary vote next
week that may spur another leg up in a record stocks run.
The blue-chip Nikkei hit all-time highs after Sanae
Takaichi, a devotee of the "Abenomics" stimulus policies of the
late Shinzo Abe, won a ruling Liberal Democratic Party election
on October 4.
That's normally a shoo-in to become the prime minister, but
the LDP is weakened. A diet vote to install her as premier has
been delayed after Takaichi failed to heal a rift with a
long-time coalition partner and rival parties tried to team up
to form their own government.
The Nikkei hit a speed bump, and a volatility measure of the
index surged to the highest since April.
Now the Japan Innovation Party has emerged as a possible
saviour after its leader pledged support for Takaichi if the two
sides can agree on policy.
3/ EARLY WARNING SIGNS
It has been six months since U.S. President Donald Trump
unveiled his "Liberation Day" tariffs.
There are trade deals in place and investors and companies
have some certainty. Or at least, they did until recently.
Tensions are flaring again between Washington and Beijing,
prompting tit-for-tat fees on cargo ships and ports, a
tightening on two-way supplies of key tech-sector materials and
parts and a general heating up in rhetoric.
Europe hasn't yet seen evidence of the big spending that
national governments, led by Germany, promised earlier this
year. China is slowing too.
The upcoming surveys of business activity for Germany,
France, the UK, the U.S. and euro zone, among other regions, in
October could start to reflect some of that renewed angst.
4/ STILL HIGH UK INFLATION?
UK inflation data next week could be pivotal for Britain's
gilt markets, sterling and finance minister Rachel Reeves'
ability to limit unpopular tax hikes and spending cuts in her
November 26 budget.
With Britain's fiscal hole widening because of surging debt
payments, Wednesday's September consumer prices report could
fuel rate cut bets and offer Reeves some relief if the
annualised print comes below the Bank of England's 4% forecast.
But a higher-than-expected increase could keep the BoE
cautious and Britain's finances looking precarious, in a threat
to sterling's recent strong run against the dollar.
Gilt markets are exhibiting optimism so far, with UK
borrowing costs falling to over two-month lows as traders priced
a 90% probability of a quarter-point rate cut by February.
5/ VOTING AND VULTURES
Bolivia's presidential election runoff vote on Sunday will
be a historic moment, formally ending almost two decades of
near-continuous socialist rule.
The debt market vultures will be watching closely. The
economy is in deep disarray, with inflation running at nearly
25%, fuel shortages rife and the country's foreign exchange
reserves now barely covering two months of basic imports.
With a meltdown potentially looming, the two candidates in
Sunday's vote are battling over what to do.
Right-wing former President Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, who has
had a narrow lead in recent polls, wants the kind of
chainsaw-style reforms Javier Milei has adopted in neighbouring
Argentina, including potentially a debt writeoff.
Centrist rival Rodrigo Paz, meanwhile, is advocating for a
more gradualist approach, fully aware of the country's long
history of violent unrest at times of economic pain.
(Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe, Graphics by Kripa Jayaram;
Editing by Elaine Hardcastle)