HOUSTON, June 12 (Reuters) - U.S. crude has dominated
global benchmark oil pricing in the year since booming shale
exports joined the mix of European crude used to calculate how
much a barrel of the world's most traded commodity costs.
The shale revolution of the past 15 years has made the U.S.
the world's top oil producer and also transformed the country
from a top importer to a major exporter after Washington ended a
40-year ban on foreign shipments.
Last May, price reporting service S&P Global's Platts added
U.S. WTI Midland crude from the Texas shale fields to the global
Dated Brent benchmark, reflecting U.S. oil's rise in importance
in global markets.
Previously, the benchmark had only included North Sea crude,
whose supply has declined while U.S. crude exports to Europe
surged as refiners sought alternatives to Russian imports, which
the European Union banned in response to Moscow's invasion of
Ukraine.
Platts uses the cheapest among WTI Midland and five grades
of North Sea oil to set the benchmark, a price gauge for roughly
80% of the world's crude, according to the Intercontinental
Exchange. Brent is viewed as a bellwether for the health of the
oil market.
Since its inclusion, WTI Midland has set the price of Dated
Brent more than half the time. WTI Midland is similar in quality
to the North Sea crude used in Dated Brent.
INCREASED LIQUIDITY, LESS VOLATILITY
Volumes of WTI Midland crude headed across the Atlantic have
climbed since its inclusion in the Dated Brent index.
WTI Midland exports hit a record at 2.94 million bpd in
December, according to data from ship tracker Kpler, up by
around 550,000 bpd on the year. About 1.71 million bpd, or more
than half of the December volumes, were headed to Europe, noted
Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler.
Surging U.S. crude exports have more than compensated for
dwindling North Sea output. The supply of the five grades of
North Sea crude that can be delivered into Dated Brent fell to
about 537,000 bpd in June from about 607,000 bpd a year earlier,
according to loading programs.
North Sea crude output has been falling for decades as
producers have already pumped most recoverable oil from the
fields.
That had left Dated Brent - and the related Brent futures
market - vulnerable to relatively small North Sea supply
problems.
"The market has really embraced Midland as a deliverable
into the Dated Brent contract," said Dave Ernsberger, global
head of pricing and market insight at S&P Global Platts.
"Liquidity in the spot market has doubled with more companies
involved."
Higher liquidity has helped ease the volatility of the
benchmark, making the market more stable despite conflict in the
Middle East, attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and continuing
disruption to oil trade caused by sanctions on Moscow.
Volatility as measured by the daily percentage change in
Dated Brent prices fell to 0.05% in the one year since WTI
Midland's inclusion last May. In the previous four years, it was
a range of -0.4% to 0.6%.
Since WTI Midland's inclusion a growing number of companies
have participated in Dated Brent trading, said S&P Global
Platts' Ernsberger.
A record 35 cargoes traded in the Platts Market on Close in
April 2024, more than four times the number that traded the same
month a year ago.
Among those who have traded Dated Brent since the change are
Saudi Aramco, top Indian refiner Reliance, U.S. shale producer
Occidental Petroleum ( OXY ) and U.S. refiner Phillips 66, according to
S&P Global and market participants.
"People who previously had no interest in Brent now see
opportunity for their business," said Adi Imsirovic, a trading
veteran who has published books and papers on Brent and runs
consultancy Surrey Clean Energy.
The trading arm of Australian investment bank Macquarie
Group ( MCQEF ) has become a top supplier of WTI Midland to Asia after its
inclusion in the contract, Imsirovic said.
Aramco declined to comment, while Reliance, Occidental,
Phillips 66 and Macquarie did not respond.
HEDGING
U.S. producers can sell WTI Midland many months forward into
the Brent market, locking in future revenues and eliminating
some pricing risk, said Ilia Bouchouev, managing partner at
Pentathlon Investments and former president of Koch Global
Partners, a multinational conglomerate with exposure to refining
and global commodities trading.
Trade in the related contracts used to hedge output and the
cost of shipping has also risen, analysts said.
This has helped drive up activity in U.S. crude futures
markets. Combined WTI Houston and WTI Midland average daily
volumes of futures lots traded as differentials to WTI futures
soared to 19,188 in May, nearly triple the 7,068 in May 2023.
"The overall global trading pie is getting larger",
Bouchouev said, as traders explore new spread and arbitrage
opportunities.
Investors with exposure to Brent contracts are now also
exposed to U.S. crude prices.
"We are certainly seeing that reflected in hedging activity"
across the WTI complex, said Peter Keavey, global head of energy
at the CME.
Traders are using forward freight agreements (FFAs) to hedge
the price risk for the cost of shipping the oil across the
Atlantic.