12:28 PM EST, 01/24/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Harley-Davidson's ( HOG ) fourth-quarter revenue and shipments are expected to have plunged, while the motorcycle maker could guide for a surprise decline in 2025 shipments, UBS Securities said in a note e-mailed Friday.

Revenue in the Harley-Davidson Motor Co. segment likely slid 41% year over year for the December quarter and 14% in 2024, according to UBS. Those figures would be in line with Wall Street's expectations.

Fourth-quarter shipments are projected to have slumped 45%, better than the Street's view for a 51% decline, while 2024 shipments likely declined 16%, versus the consensus estimate of a 17% decrease, UBS analysts Robin Farley and Arpine Kocharyan said in a note to clients.

The company's US retail sales in October and November could have been down close to a double-digit rate, while preliminary checks for last month were also "very negative," Farley and Kocharyan said.

Even though Harley-Davidson ( HOG ) cut its original 2024 shipment plans, there were still 30,000 bikes on US dealer floors at the end of the year amid macro headwinds and tighter credit requirements by Harley-Davidson Financial Services, UBS said, citing dealers.

The company's shares were down 1.4% in Friday trade. It is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results Feb. 5.

The company's 2025 shipment outlook could indicate a 5% drop on an annual basis, compared with the Street's view for a flat print, the analysts wrote.

"Dealers tell us that (Harley-Davidson ( HOG )) has lowered their retail targets for 2025, which is a recognition not only of declining sales, but also that dealers need more economics from (the company) given the lower sales volumes," Farley and Kocharyan said. "Many dealers came in significantly below their assigned 2024 retail targets, and even though some dealers have had their (2025) targets in some cases reduced by significant double-digit amounts, some dealers say those targets could still be too high because they are above where 2024 retail came in."

The ongoing quarter is likely off to a "tough" start, the analysts wrote. Instead of offering incentives to dealers, Harley-Davidson ( HOG ) has hiked the manufacturer's suggested retail price of some model-year 2025 bikes to make the 2024 bikes appear lower priced, UBS said, citing dealers.

"Dealers say it will be hard to clear a large number of carryover bikes in (the first quarter), what is one of the slower quarters of the year," the analysts wrote. "Some dealers tell us they have half a year of inventory."

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