12:08 PM EDT, 10/31/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Harley-Davidson ( HOG ) is likely facing a worse-than-expected drop in US retail sales for Q3, UBS Securities said in a note Friday. The Q3 results are due Nov. 4.

"US retail sales for Q3 may be down double-digits, worse than the mid-single digit industry decline that PII noted for its Indian brand," the report said.

The firm has also trimmed its planned shipments for November and December that would have arrived at dealers for December and January including new model year '26 bikes, the note said.

"This could suggest downside to consensus shipments estimates for next year, currently looking for +3.5% growth, while we have been below consensus at flat shipments," the report said.

UBS has a neutral rating on the stock with a price target of $28.

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