04:20 PM EDT, 10/31/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Harley-Davidson's ( HOG ) third-quarter US retail sales likely fell more than expected, while the motorcycle maker could miss Wall Street's shipment estimates for next year, UBS Securities said Friday.

In July, the company's second-quarter results missed market views amid softening demand globally. Harley-Davidson ( HOG ) is scheduled to report third-quarter results Tuesday.

Its US retail sales could have dropped by double digits in the September quarter versus a mid-single-digit decline projected by investors, UBS said in a note to clients. Harley-Davidson ( HOG ) has likely reduced its planned shipments for November and December, including those for 2026 bikes, according to the note.

"This could suggest downside to consensus shipments estimates for next year, currently looking for 3.5% growth, while we have been below consensus at flat shipments," UBS analysts, including Robin Farley, said.

The company's shares closed 1.2% higher on Friday. The stock is down about 10% so far in 2025.

Amid a worse retail environment than the company expected, it is likely offering various incentives such as floor planning for the winter so that dealers don't have to pay for bikes until the end of March, UBS said. "This is likely more than generosity, as we believe dealer closures in the last year have been in excess of what (Harley-Davidson ( HOG )) had expected."

The company's excess inventory at dealers could be around 20,000 units, compared with last year's 35,000, though still not at an ideal level heading into the winter, according to the note.

Overall used bike sales, including Harley's, continue to fall, while price growth appears to have stalled this year, according to the brokerage. Some investors had looked at those factors in the past "as a sign of potential demand that could help new unit sales," UBS' Farley wrote.

Earlier this year, Harley-Davidson ( HOG ) said it appointed Artie Starrs as chief executive, effective Oct. 1, replacing Jochen Zeitz.

Dealers likely have "a much more positive view" of the new CEO, UBS said Friday.

"He has been responsive to dealer requests and made changes already in his first few weeks, like moving some e-commerce delivery back to dealerships and responding to other dealer concerns," Farley said. "Dealers would still like to see Sportster models brought back, but that change would take longer."

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