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HEDGE FLOW-Hedge funds side with 'Trump trades' in equities, says JPM
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HEDGE FLOW-Hedge funds side with 'Trump trades' in equities, says JPM
Oct 21, 2024 8:39 AM

NEW YORK, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Global hedge funds have

shown "a strong preference" for stocks that could perform well

if Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump wins the

election, JPMorgan ( JPM ) said in a note late last week

analyzing how positioning is changing ahead of the nomination.

"In general, net flows year-to-date have been quite

correlated to Trump's odds," said the bank, adding "there is

room for a bit of disappointment and reversal in coming weeks if

odds start to shift the other way."

Democratic candidate Kamala Harris led Trump by a marginal

45% to 42% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday, with the

gap between both candidates remaining steady. Some other

national polls have showed the gap between candidates narrowing.

Trump has taken the lead in online prediction markets, with

a 60% chance of winning the race on Polymarket.

Over the past few weeks, portfolio managers bought assets in

some themes that could benefit from a Republican government,

according to JPMorgan's ( JPM ) positioning intelligence unit, which

tracks hedge funds' portfolios.

Meanwhile, hedge funds sold assets that could perform well

under a Democratic government. As an example, JPMorgan ( JPM ) mentioned

renewable energy, which "sold very quickly in past couple weeks

as Trump's odds jumped."

The Republican candidate has laid out an energy policy

platform that opposes president Joe Biden's clean energy agenda.

Hedge funds have been buying crypto stocks strongly, but

positioning is neutral. Trump has positioned himself as

pro-cryptocurrency and has unveiled a new crypto business, World

Liberty Financial.

JPMorgan ( JPM ) did not entirely detail the components of its

Republican and Democratic baskets. The bank did not immediately

respond to a Reuters request for more information.

Some hedge funds have been more vocal about their trades

leaning on a Trump win. Billionaire investor Daniel Loeb has

adjusted Third Point's portfolio to capture a potential boom in

corporate activity if the Republican candidate wins the

election, according to a letter seen by Reuters.

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