NEW YORK, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Global hedge funds have
shown "a strong preference" for stocks that could perform well
if Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump wins the
election, JPMorgan ( JPM ) said in a note late last week
analyzing how positioning is changing ahead of the nomination.
"In general, net flows year-to-date have been quite
correlated to Trump's odds," said the bank, adding "there is
room for a bit of disappointment and reversal in coming weeks if
odds start to shift the other way."
Democratic candidate Kamala Harris led Trump by a marginal
45% to 42% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday, with the
gap between both candidates remaining steady. Some other
national polls have showed the gap between candidates narrowing.
Trump has taken the lead in online prediction markets, with
a 60% chance of winning the race on Polymarket.
Over the past few weeks, portfolio managers bought assets in
some themes that could benefit from a Republican government,
according to JPMorgan's ( JPM ) positioning intelligence unit, which
tracks hedge funds' portfolios.
Meanwhile, hedge funds sold assets that could perform well
under a Democratic government. As an example, JPMorgan ( JPM ) mentioned
renewable energy, which "sold very quickly in past couple weeks
as Trump's odds jumped."
The Republican candidate has laid out an energy policy
platform that opposes president Joe Biden's clean energy agenda.
Hedge funds have been buying crypto stocks strongly, but
positioning is neutral. Trump has positioned himself as
pro-cryptocurrency and has unveiled a new crypto business, World
Liberty Financial.
JPMorgan ( JPM ) did not entirely detail the components of its
Republican and Democratic baskets. The bank did not immediately
respond to a Reuters request for more information.
Some hedge funds have been more vocal about their trades
leaning on a Trump win. Billionaire investor Daniel Loeb has
adjusted Third Point's portfolio to capture a potential boom in
corporate activity if the Republican candidate wins the
election, according to a letter seen by Reuters.