SHANGHAI, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Global hedge fund giant
Winton suffered a sharp drawdown in its China strategy as
Beijing's stimulus package last month triggered a surge in local
stock and commodities markets, highlighting risks for
trend-following money managers from China's policy shocks.
The London-based fund's onshore China strategy, which makes
directional bets in the futures market on assets ranging from
stocks and bonds to metals, has plunged more than 8% in value
since Sept. 20, wiping out all gains for this year, according to
two investors and a performance record.
The data-based, trend-following investor, which in August
was bearish on China stocks and industrial metals, and bullish
on bonds, appeared to have been caught off-guard when Beijing
unveiled a raft of stimulus policies on Sept. 24, sending share
and metal prices surging, and treasury prices plunging.
"Many investors were caught unprepared by the extremely
abrupt policy shift," said Tim Cao, a Shanghai-based hedge fund
manager, who also invests in futures.
"Many trend-following, quantitative strategies are suffering
because history data had no way to predict something like this,"
he said.
The net asset value of a Winton China product stands at
2.443 yuan per unit, latest data disclosed to an investor
showed, down 8% from 2.667 yuan on Sept. 20, before China's
blistering stock market rally. For the year, the product lost
0.2%, and over the past three years, it lost 3.4% in value.
That compares with the strategy's biggest drawdown of 11.28%
over the past five years.
Winton declined to comment.
Winton, founded in London by David Harding in 1997, began
trading onshore China futures in 2010, and has set up a local
Chinese unit which currently manages assets in the range of 2
billion yuan to 5 billion yuan ($284 million-$709 million),
according to official data. It manages more than $12 billion
globally.
Winton trades more than 55 futures instruments in China
linked to assets including stocks, bonds, metal and agricultural
products, according to a company brochure.
An August report showed Winton held long positions in
precious metal and bond futures, and short positions in stock
index futures, as well as industrial and agricultural products.
China's bluechip index CSI300 has jumped more than
30% since Sept. 20, an index tracking metals in China
has gained as much as 7.4%, while China's 30-year
treasury bond futures has plunged as much as 7%.
"The drawback is understandable as sentiment had been gloomy
since July, and the Sept. 24 policy exceeded expectations,
causing a trend reversal," said an investment advisor who sells
Winton's China products.
However, "Winton's strategy is time-tested, and proved to be
effective in capturing long-term trends ... It doesn't change
with the market," said the advisor who declined to be named.
Winton said in its brochure that its investment process is
systematic and rule-based, and it has in place a
carefully-designed risk-management framework that takes into
account surprises.
($1 = 7.0537 Chinese yuan renminbi)