01:35 PM EST, 11/24/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The US holiday shopping season this year is expected to see a "mediocre finish" amid concerns around macro worries, with TJX (TJX) and Burlington Stores ( BURL ) likely to benefit from such an environment, UBS Securities said Monday.

Consumers' willingness to spend "waned" sequentially amid concerns regarding employment, inflation, and the overall economy, the brokerage wrote in a note to clients, citing new November data. "Therefore, we expect an only mediocre finish to the US holiday shopping season," UBS analysts Jay Sole and Mauricio Serna said.

Although the consumer spending environment in the US is "still fine" on an absolute basis, it's not likely to benefit all soft-line retailers, according to UBS.

"We expect consumers will find off-price retail's value-for-money offering particularly attractive this holiday season," the analysts said, highlighting TJX and Burlington Stores ( BURL ) as likely beneficiaries of the current spending environment.

The brokerage expects discount retailers to win market share as consumers look to save money despite being financially strong. UBS rates the stocks of TJX and Burlington Stores ( BURL ) buy and those of Kohl's (KSS) and Macy's (M) sell, according to the note.

Over the next 90 days, consumer spending plans for soft goods are down 2.4% compared with last November and represent a roughly 290-basis-point deceleration sequentially. The percentage of consumers who intend to spend more in November and December is 30 basis points lower than those who plan to spend less, according to UBS.

Some 75% of consumers indicated they will or may shop either in store or online this Thanksgiving weekend, up 30 basis point on an annual basis and the highest percentage in eight years.

"This suggests to us the headlines on the Sunday night post-Thanksgiving might sound promising, but the momentum may not last through the rest of the season," Sole and Serna wrote.

While US consumers' view of the economy continued to be weighed down by inflation as the biggest concern, employment worries are having "an incrementally negative impact" on their attitudes, the analysts said.

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