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Nov 6 (Reuters) - Donald Trump's return to the White

House after winning the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election may

reshape American business. Much depends on whom he appoints as

deputies and cabinet members, including the role of Tesla CEO

Elon Musk, and what tariffs he enacts. Following are some major

issues and sectors to watch:

WHAT ROLE WILL ELON MUSK PLAY?

After some nudging from the world's wealthiest person, Trump has

said he would tap Tesla CEO Elon Musk to lead a new government

efficiency commission. Musk has said at least $2 trillion could

be cut from the $6.75 trillion federal budget. How that works

could be a key to the next Trump administration.

Does efficiency mean fewer rules and regulators? Musk has

been a vocal critic, for instance, of federal review of his

SpaceX rocket business. That could mean less oversight of

self-driving cars (a Tesla business) or rocket launches and much

more.

The two men are not completely in sync: Trump has said he won't

let California require all vehicles in the state go electric in

a decade, but Musk runs the world's most valuable EV company. "A

rising tide raises all boats. So to the extent that Elon is able

to hamper the vilification of EVs by a potential Trump

administration, all the better," said James Chen, former head of

policy for Rivian and Tesla. How Musk would address conflicts of

interest between his interests in autos, space, health,

construction and artificial intelligence is not clear.

Trump has pledged to be a "crypto president", a plan that may

start with replacing industry opponent Gary Gensler, the

Securities and Exchange Commission chair who has sued most of

the industry - including Coinbase, Binance and Kraken.

Gensler's replacement is expected to review - and potentially

tear up - accounting guidance and create industry exemptions

from SEC rules. Musk, too is a crypto supporter, as is Silicon

Valley Trump supporter Marc Andreessen and incoming Vice

President J.D. Vance.

Musk is also a big proponent of carbon-free energy, with

Tesla being a major supplier of solar systems and batteries.

Trump has promised to kill the offshore wind industry and

rescind all unspent funds under the Inflation Reduction Act -

Biden's signature climate law. But Trump faces dissent in his

ranks: Republican lawmakers, oil companies and others see

massive red state gains from the law. Musk has played into that,

building his second U.S. electric vehicle factory in Texas, for

instance.

TARIFFS

Trump has proposed a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and 60% on

Chinese-made products, which if enacted would affect the whole

economy by pushing consumer prices higher. The Tax Foundation, a

non-partisan think tank, calculated Trump tariffs would hike

taxes by $524 billion annually, shrink GDP by at least 0.8%, and

cut employment by 684,000 full-time equivalent jobs potentially

impacting retail workers, the largest private sector employer.

He also suggested he might impose a 25% tariff on all imports

from Mexico.

Trump's tariff proposals could reduce American consumers'

spending power between $46 billion and $78 billion each year,

according to a National Retail Federation study.

Apparel, toys, furniture, household appliances and footwear

would be the most affected categories, the study said. Retailers

would shift operations outside of China to countries including

Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam. Big-box stores like Walmart and

Target would face higher supply chain costs, while supermarkets

like Kroger, Albertsons, and Publix, which minimally source from

China, could benefit. Shipping and transportation experts say

sweeping tariffs could initially bolster their business before

depressing trade.

Tariffs loom over tech as well. In recent weeks, Trump has also

heavily criticized the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act that has

sought to partially subsidize companies building factories in

the United States. Instead, he said the country should impose

tariffs on chips coming into the country, especially from

Taiwan's TSMC.

Tariffs also would sharply raise costs for the renewable

energy industries in the U.S., which rely heavily on Chinese

components. "Trump actions without Congressional backing could

include import tariffs of 10-20% (ex China), 60%-200% on Chinese

imports which could impact the cost of renewable projects,

particularly solar and storage projects," according to an

October research note from Bernstein.

And then there is the question of China's retaliation. It is

the world's biggest soy importer and pork consumer, but it has

diversified its food supply base since Trump's tariffs in his

first administration. Moreover, China failed to fully comply

with an agreement to buy more U.S. agricultural goods that it

signed with Trump in January 2020. Trump has vowed in his second

term to impose 60% duties on imports from China, raising

concerns that Beijing will retaliate by reducing imports of U.S.

farm products.

OIL: DRILL BABY DRILL - BUT NOT IRAN

The United States is already the world's biggest oil and gas

producer, but Trump wants to clear away remaining obstacles.

He'll lift a freeze on new liquefied natural gas export permits,

expand federal drilling auctions, speed up new pipeline

permitting and try to reverse or weaken regulations aimed at

cutting power plant and auto emissions. Trump's support for the

oil and gas industry could also lead him to temper his

opposition to the Inflation Reduction Act, since oil companies

are receiving some funding from it for carbon-free endeavors

like carbon capture and sequestration.

The big oil policy wildcard is how Trump will treat rival

exporters, including Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. It is

likely that Trump would relieve sanctions on Russian energy, but

leave in place those on Iran, said Ed Hirs, an energy fellow at

the University of Houston. Jesse Jones, an analyst with

consulting firm Energy Aspects, expects even more. "We think

that the impact of a Trump administration returning to a maximum

pressure campaign on Iran could lead to a million barrel per day

decrease in Iranian crude exports," he said.

LABOR UNIONS

Organized labor made great strides under President Joe Biden,

who joined a picket line with U.S. auto workers. The UAW wants

to expand and in future strikes the federal government could be

asked to intervene in a way that undercuts worker bargaining

power, something Democrats have so far declined to do.

Republicans have typically been unfriendly to unions, but

Trump has played a different game, reaching out to blue-collar

workers. Strong support among many union workers may pressure

Trump to protect those voters, said Anthony Miyazaki, a

marketing professor at Florida International University. Still,

his record of appointing leaders to the National Labor Relations

Board resulted in a roll back of workers' rights to form unions.

If this cycle repeats, it could potentially reverse the gains

unions have made since the pandemic, including successful

organizing efforts at Starbucks and Amazon and other fledgling

movements at Apple, REI and Trader Joe's.

OTHER TOPICS INCLUDE:

FINANCE

Within banking, JPMorgan ( JPM ), Goldman Sachs ( GS ), Bank of

America ( BAC ) and other lenders will likely enjoy a reprieve

from stiff capital hikes, M&A hoop-jumping, and Biden's "junk

fees" crackdown. Trump is expected to quickly install

industry-friendly Republicans at the financial regulators. But

those gains may be offset if Trump follows through on tax and

trade policies that will widen the deficit and fuel inflation,

in turn boosting lending rates. That could push existing loans

into the red, say analysts.

ANTITRUST AND TECH

Trump may walk back the Department of Justice's bid to break up

Alphabet's Google and prefer settling with companies over

competition issues in mergers, rather than new trials, attorneys

said. The nation's tough, top merger cop, Federal Trade

Commission Chair Lina Khan, is almost certainly headed for the

door. More broadly, Trump's backers in Silicon Valley, including

investors Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen and Tesla chief Elon

Musk, want less regulation of new technology, from artificial

intelligence to rockets. They have a champion in former venture

capitalist Vance.

MEDIA: WATCH WHAT YOU SAY

Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos decided days before the vote

that the paper would not endorse anyone for president,

describing it as a principled move to regain credibility.

Hundreds of thousands of subscribers left, many saying it was

political cowardice. USA Today and the LA Times also declined to

endorse a candidate. "The message is pretty clear right now,"

said former FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler. "That is conceding to the

tyrant in advance before you're asked to," said New York

University School of Professional Studies adjunct associate

professor Helio Fred Garcia, an author of two books about Trump.

During the campaign, Trump called on the Federal

Communications Commission to strip ABC and CBS of their

broadcast licenses. FCC Chair Jessica Rosenworcel has denounced

Trump's calls to revoke licenses for broadcast stations, citing

free speech protections. But the independence of the FCC could

be at risk if Trump follows through on a campaign pledge to

bring regulatory agencies, such as the FCC, under presidential

authority, Wheeler said. The president also could invoke his

emergency powers under the Communications Act to exert control

over broadcasters, citing "national security" concerns.

Even so, a new Trump presidency will likely give cable TV

news networks like CNN, Fox News and MSNBC and news outlets

including the New York Times and Washington Post the same big

jolt to viewers and audience that his first term generated.

PHARMACEUTICALS

Trump recently said he would let former presidential candidate

and anti-vaccine advocate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. "go wild" on

vaccine and healthcare policy. Kennedy has said that Trump

promised him control over the FDA, CDC, HHS, and the USDA. Those

jobs could potentially give him control over what vaccines are

approved and whether Americans are recommended to receive them.

Trump transition co-chair Howard Lutnick has said Kennedy is not

going to be put in charge of the Department of Health and Human

Services, but suggested he could advise on vaccines.

Jeremy Levin, CEO of biotech company Ovid Therapeutics

and former chairman of biotech lobby group BIO, said he

would be alarmed if Kennedy was given oversight over vaccines,

and that other executives had also expressed concern. "Vaccine

denialism, which is a central plank of RFK's, is perhaps as

dangerous as anything you can imagine," he said, adding that

President Trump's previous appointments for the COVID vaccine

effort and the FDA suggest to him that more moderate positions

will win out. Some executives also were concerned that Kennedy's

influence could harm the U.S.'s reputation and ability to review

new drugs.