*

Milton loss could reach $100 bln, matching Katrina

*

Possible loss of $60 bln would be similar to Ian

*

Reinsurance rates could increase and boost shares

(Rewrites paragraph 1, adds Morningstar DBRS in paragraph 3)

By Carolyn Cohn and Noor Zainab Hussain

LONDON, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Hurricane Milton could result

in losses of up $100 billion for the global insurance industry,

creating a surge in 2025 reinsurance prices that could boost

some insurance companies' shares, analysts said on Wednesday.

The Category 5 hurricane is expected to make landfall on the

Gulf Coast of Florida late on Wednesday or early Thursday. It is

potentially one of the most destructive yet to hit the region,

which is recovering from devastation caused by Hurricane Helene

less than two weeks ago.

Insured losses from Milton could be from $60-$100 billion if

the hurricane makes direct landfall in the densely populated

area of Tampa, analysts at Morningstar DBRS said.

A loss of $100 billion would put Milton on a par with

Katrina in 2005, they added, saying that insured losses would

likely be "substantial but not catastrophic".

Katrina caused the largest insured loss from a hurricane.

The second largest loss came from Ian, which hit Florida in

2022 and led to losses of around $60 billion.

RBC analysts estimated Milton would lead to similar losses

to Ian that should be "very manageable" for the insurance

sector.

Analysts at Jefferies estimated a mid-double-digit billion

dollar insured loss would follow a major hurricane impact in one

of Florida's most heavily populated regions.

"A 1-in-100 year event is estimated by some to result in

$175 billion in losses for landfall in the Tampa region, and $70

billion in losses in the Ft Myers region," they wrote in a note

INDUSTRY RESPONSE

Insurers and reinsurers - who insure the insurers - have

responded to rising losses from natural catastrophes, which

scientists say are being exacerbated by climate change, by

raising rates and excluding higher-risk business.

"Better reinsurance contract terms, broader earnings

diversification and bigger reserve buffers should put the sector

in better stead than before," the RBC analysts said in a note.

Shares in global reinsurers Swiss Re and Munich Re

and in Lloyd's of London players Beazley

, Hiscox ( HCXLF ) and Lancashire have fallen this

week. Swiss Re, Munich Re and Beazley have been trading at

record highs in recent weeks following strong profits.

"It's only a matter of time before shares regain lost ground

as prospects of harder pricing at the subsequent (policy)

renewals set in," RBC added.

Reinsurers fix prices for many insurance contracts on Jan.

1.

Analysts at Peel Hunt said on Wednesday that a major

hurricane making landfall across Tampa Bay and travelling west

across the Florida Peninsula would be similar to a realistic

disaster scenario set out by Lloyd's earlier this year, which

projected a $134 billion loss for the insurance sector.

Lloyd's maintains a set of mandatory Realistic Disaster

Scenarios to stress test both individual syndicates and the

market as a whole. The event scenarios are regularly reviewed to

ensure they represent material catastrophe risks.