06:13 AM EDT, 09/25/2025 (MT Newswires) -- EUR/USD sold off early Wednesday and that looked to be a function of the German Ifo release, said ING.

Here, some doubts seem to be emerging as to how quickly fiscal stimulus can be employed and whether it is indeed just creative accounting, wrote the bank in a note.

ING is looking for a pick-up in eurozone activity in 2026, but clearly some patience is required. And if EUR/USD is to move higher later this year as the bank forecasts, this will largely have to be on the back of a further rise in unemployment and Federal Reserve rate cuts.

In the absence of eurozone data or European Central Bank speakers on Thursday, EUR/USD will be dragged around by United States events, stated the bank. A move under 1.1725 in EUR/USD could damage the short-term picture and see the correction extend towards the 1.1660 area.

Wednesday's headlines suggest that the Ukrainian-Russian conflict won't end anytime soon, which was one of the reasons why the market bought Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies in the summer, pointed out ING.

Although the current headlines shouldn't be a game-changer for CEE, some pressure on currency is understandable. However, the local story in the Czech Republic remains positive for the koruna (CZK), and the bank remains bullish with EUR/CZK heading to 24.000.

The Swiss central bank (SNB) kept its policy rate unchanged at 0% on Thursday, as inflation remains very low and economic risks mount.

Conspicuous by its absence in Thursday's update is any greater concern over Swiss franc (CHF) strength. There's no description of the franc being "highly valued" or the SNB being prepared to intervene more strongly in currency markets. That may well be down to the realpolitik of a more interventionist U.S. administration wary of trading partners limiting currency strength for trade gain, according to ING.

EUR/CHF is largely unchanged on Thursday's update, and the bank's view is that it will continue to trade around these 0.92/93 levels until a more bullish eurozone/ECB story emerges in 2026. If anything, the SNB's lack of concern over the strong franc -- even as the inflation-adjusted franc trades up at the highs -- is a mildly bearish development for EUR/CHF on Thursday.