06:35 AM EDT, 08/29/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The European Central Bank's July minutes showed the Governing Council isn't as concerned about the euro's strength as some had speculated, but multiple members did point to downside risks to inflation and that, in ING's view, still suggests market pricing for year-end (-10bps) is too hawkish.

Anyway, given the silence of ECB doves of late and President Christine Lagarde reiterating that the ECB is in a good place with its current 2% rate, a dovish repricing doesn't seem to be a particularly imminent story, wrote the bank in a note.

Friday, investors will see the first prints of the eurozone's August inflation, with France, Spain, Italy and Germany releasing numbers. Expectations are for broadly unchanged year-on-year figures from July, resulting in a modestly higher eurozone-wide headline reading and a modestly lower core print -- to be released on Tuesday. The ECB's inflation expectations for July are also published on Friday.

All in all, ING doesn't think there will be much in the data to convince markets to materially reprice ECB rate expectations just yet. The French political earthquake is being endogenized and the bank doesn't think it will hurt the euro much unless snap elections become the baseline scenario.

EUR/USD remains cheap according to ING's short-term fair value model and it still favors a break above 1.170 in the next few days.

The bank sees any weakness in Poland's zloty (PLN) on Friday as an opportunity for new long positions ahead of next week's central bank meeting.

ING remains bullish on the Czech Republic's koruna (CZK) and EUR/CZK should return below 24.500.