06:06 AM EDT, 10/09/2025 (MT Newswires) -- News emerged late Wednesday from former French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu that President Emmanuel Macron could announce a new PM by late Friday, sai ING.

This has come as a surprise to a market that had felt that the next chapter in the French political saga could only be new and divisive elections, wrote the bank in a note. The Polymarket betting site now shows a 37% probability of elections being called by the end of October, versus a 70% probability this time on Wednesday.

The news has helped EUR/USD to find some support near 1.1600 and the popular hedge, , to bounce off 0.9300, stated ING.

And after spiking to the high-80s on Monday, the OAT-Bund sovereign bond spread is drifting back to the low-80s. This news may be enough to buy the euro (EUR) a reprieve until late Friday at least, added the bank.

Thursday, investors will see the minutes of the European Central Bank policy meeting from last month. The message is expected to remain that the policy rate is 'in a good place' but that the ECB won't hesitate to act should risks develop. Those risks seem to err towards slower activity, lower inflation and another rate cut -- although market pricing of that outcome remains very muted, pointed out ING.

The bank prefers the lower end of a two-month trading range, holding at 1.1580/1600 for EUR/USD. If not, investors could see another sharpish fall to the 1.1500 area.

Poland's central bank (NBP) surprised on Wednesday with a 25bps rate cut to 4.50%, according to ING. Although there were some expectations of rate cuts, the consensus was for unchanged rates.

The statement describes the cut as another "adjustment," even though it is already the third rate cut in a row. The two main takeaways from the statement are slowing wages and the short-term inflation outlook as reasons for the cut. On the other hand, the fact that the NBP only talks about the short-term outlook seems to indicate that the central bank wants to remain hawkish, which investors will likely hear on Thursday during the press conference.

EUR/PLN saw only slight changes and the bank believes that foreign exchange is range-bound and, despite the surprising cut, ING doesn't see much of a story here. If the governor delivers a hawkish message, markets may see some support for the zloty (PLN) and move closer to the lower end of the 4.245-275 range.

Wednesday's meeting of Romania's central bank (NBR) brought no surprises, with the rate unchanged at 6.50%, noted ING. NBR expects fiscal consolidation to increasingly weigh on household consumption and gross domestic product growth, while inflation is only a temporary phenomenon triggered by higher taxes.

As a consequence, it's willing to look through this and, in ING's opinion, will return to rate cuts later next year. EUR/RON stopped its upward trend yesterday and is holding at 5.100 for now. The bank believes that further weakening would put too much inflationary pressure on the NBR, and ING will see more activity from the central bank in the market.