06:01 AM EDT, 10/06/2025 (MT Newswires) -- EUR/USD has struggled to find a catalyst for a big break higher -- in other words, above 1.180 -- despite some accumulation of negative United States news, said ING.

The bar to sell US dollars (USD) appears higher and the euro (EUR) is lacking a "highly compelling idiosyncratic story," wrote the bank in a note to clients.

ING could see the pair continuing to stall around current levels, even though the balance of risks remains on the upside due to the U.S. government shutdown and potentially dovish Federal Reserve minutes. The bank sees a good chance of the pair hovering in the 1.168-1.176 range in the coming days.

Don't expect much data input from the eurozone this week. European Central Bank speakers will attract more interest, starting with Monday's speech by President Christine Lagarde. However, recent inflation figures have simply confirmed that the ECB is fine where it is with rates -- so the bank doesn't expect to hear anything new on policy guidance.

On Wednesday, Poland's central bank (NBP) will decide on rates, and ING expects no change at 4.75%, in line with surveys. However, market pricing and surveys suggest a close call and some chance of another 25bps rate cut.

The central bank of Romania (NBR) also meets on Wednesday, but this should be a non-event with rates unchanged at 6.50%, pointed out ING.

Central and Eastern European foreign exchange had another good week with gains across the board, and conditions remain positive for the region. Central banks are still hawkish, and although ING may see a rate cut from the NBP this week, hawkish forward guidance can be expected due to fiscal policy.

However, EUR/PLN has already seen some rebound from the upper end of the bank's 4.240-275 range last week, and markets seem to be preparing for a hawkish scenario regardless of the rate decision.

EUR/RON jumped above 5.090 for a moment on Friday and continues its upward trend. The NBR seems willing to tolerate greater flexibility than it has shown previously, and markets are pushing the pair higher. Still, investors shouldn't see a move closer to or above 5.010, and ING expects higher activity from the NBR in the markets in an effort to prevent additional inflationary pressures.

After Saturday's parliamentary election, the bank remains bullish on the Czech koruna (CZK) and, after the sell-off in recent weeks, on CZK fixed income at the long end of the curve. ING still believes that the Czech elections are more about monetary policy and the Czech central bank's (CNB) response than fiscal policy, which is positive for foreign exchange.