06:04 AM EDT, 05/16/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The euro has only been marginally impacted by domestic news this week, said ING.

Q1 gross domestic product growth was revised a touch lower to 0.3% from 0.4% on Thursday, although March industrial production figures were stronger than expected.

After a moderate hawkish repricing in the wake of the United States-China trade deal, markets and consensus seem to be aligning around two rate cuts by the European Central Bank this year, which is also ING's call.

ECB speakers have so far offered very little pushback against this view, wrote the bank in a note. This week, members from both sides of the spectrum -- including the dovish-leaning ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy and the hawk Klaas Knot-- sounded confident that United States tariffs won't stoke eurozone inflation.

Earlier, Latvia's GC member, hawkish-leaning Martins Kazaks, said a June cut is a "pretty possible step."

The bank still sees 1.120 as a good short-term anchor for EUR/USD, although the bias seems to be for testing 1.130 rather than 1.110 in the short term on the back of lingering US dollar strategic selling. ING has a one-month target of 1.12 and an end-of-June target of 1.13.

In Romania, the central bank (NBR) meets on Friday. ING expects rates to remain unchanged despite the current volatility in the markets. The main focus will be whether NBR will mention foreign exchange and market intervention, stated the bank. Thursday, markets saw renewed pressure on spot and forward foreign exchange and subsequently in the bond market after several days of relief.

ING could see pre-positioning ahead of the weekend when the second round of the presidential election takes place. EUR/RON has stabilized around 5.100 but the spike in forwards indicates more upward pressure on spot. Polls show a close contest between the candidates with no clear favorite.