06:21 AM EDT, 08/13/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The ZEW surveys published in Tuesday confirmed the poor reception of the United States-European Union trade deal in the EU, said ING.

The "expectations" gauge in Germany is back to 35 and in the eurozone to 25, both the lowest since May.

However, markets aren't giving the surveys too much weight, and pricing for the European Central Bank December meeting has crept closer to -10bps from -15bps last week. The bank continues to see this pricing as too conservative and a potential vulnerability for the euro moving on. But that is unlikely to play out over the next couple of weeks and should be overshadowed by the Federal Reserve story.

EUR/USD's bullish case is stronger after Tuesday's U.S. inflation report, ING wrote the in a note. However, a move higher might be delayed until after the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday.

Although Tuesday's upside surprise in Romanian inflation doesn't mean rate hikes by the central bank (NBR), the overall picture looks a bit worse than before, stated ING. The source of inflation is clear and should be a one-off.

On the other hand, Romania will see inflation close to 10% over the next 12 months, which may affect inflation expectations. The "good news" is that the economy doesn't have the strength to generate inflationary pressures at the moment, so the NBR isn't expected to respond to these figures for now.

On the other hand, ING believes that higher inflation leaves the leu (RON) market exposed in the event of fiscal problems.

The bank sees some divergence in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region for currency. On the one hand, there are Hungary's forint (HUF) and Poland's (PLN), which are benefiting solely from positive market sentiment. On the other hand, there is the Czech Republic's koruna (CZK), which has a hawkish central bank on its side, and currency gains are accompanied by a movement in the interest rate differential.

That is why ING defines CZK gains as more permanent, which the market's behavior suggests is a true hypothesis.

Only the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations between the presidents of the U.S. and Russia on Friday will be another driver in the region, and Wednesday and Thursday should be quiet, noted the bank.

However, fair values for EUR/PLN and EUR/HUF based on rates seem to be somewhere around 4.280 and 399-400. This suggests still decent upside if the negotiations collapse, while the downside would only be more tangible if there are "some" solid results. EUR/CZK, on the other hand, should maintain its current levels in both cases.