06:36 AM EDT, 06/11/2025 (MT Newswires) -- This week's moves in the euro are almost entirely driven by United States-related events, said ING.

The only euro input comes from scheduled European Central Bank speeches, which so far have reinforced the less dovish tone set by President Christine Lagarde last week, noted ING.

Croatia's central bank chief, Boris Vucic, confirmed the new consensus on the ECB on Tuesday, saying the ECB is in a "very good position" and should wait for "another projection" -- meaning September -- before making its next move.

Markets are pricing in 15bps for September, 17bps for October and 30bps for December, wrote the bank in a note.

From a foreign exchange angle, the impact isn't huge, stated ING. EUR/USD surged last week on the ECB's hawkish shift, but short-term rate differentials aren't driving G10 foreign exchange beyond central bank events.

EUR/USD's direction on Wednesday will be mostly set by the US dollar, with some support likely near 1.1400 and a possible push above 1.1500 by the week's end, added the bank.

Wednesday, there will be the United Kingdom spending review announcement event, pointed out ING.

Wednesday's Spending Review shouldn't be a big moment for financial markets, according to the bank. Markets already know how quickly investment and departmental budgets will rise over the next few years, and the announcement simply tells them how the overall pot gets divvied up.

But it will emphasise that when it comes to day-to-day spending, there's not enough cash to go around, and more money will need to be found at the Fall Budget, noted ING. Added to which, the bank thinks the Treasury's slim fiscal headroom against its fiscal rules has fully evaporated and tax rises will be needed later this year to plug the gap.

Sterling (GBP) lost some steam after soft U.K. jobs data on Tuesday. Budget events often stir Gilt market volatility, so EUR/GBP might get a bit of bullish momentum and test 0.850 in the coming days, said ING.