06:12 AM EDT, 03/24/2026 (MT Newswires) -- United States President Donald Trump's comments on Monday quickly saw markets cut the chances of an April European Central Bank rate hike to 65% from 100%, said ING.

The bank's team, at this stage, feels a hike in April is "very unlikely." However, it doesn't cost much for the ECB to talk tough, souring this supply shock in an effort to keep inflation expectations in check.

On that subject, the ECB releases its survey on one-year and three-year inflation expectations this Friday -- although this is for February.

EUR/USD has short-term resistance at 1.1610 and 1.1670. The bank struggles to see EUR/USD breaking above the latter level unless there is positive news on negotiations emerging from Iranian sources.

Even though United Kingdom's short-dated interest rates had some of the biggest adjustments lower on Monday, EUR/GBP remains surprisingly offered, stated ING. Clear support is defined at the 0.8600/8620 area, which the bank -- and probably the rest of the market -- expect to hold.

That is the same for the currency option market, where the EUR/GBP one-month risk reversal -- or the price of a call option over an equivalent put option -- remains bid at its recent highs of 0.8%.

ING also feels the bar is exceptionally high for the Bank of England to hike the already restrictive policy rate, and it may well be that softer activity data takes some of the sting out of BoE tightening expectations.

Markets should be wary of comments from BoE "arch-hawk," Huw Pill, later on Tuesday, pointed out the bank. Pill could well say he plans to vote for an April hike.

ING's baseline assumes 0.8600/8620 contains EUR/GBP downside.