06:02 AM EDT, 09/16/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The path ahead looks highly uncertain with regards to the French budget impasse, said ING.

However, sovereign upgrades for Spain and Portugal are offsetting the French news, and the global glass-half-full environment is keeping the euro (EUR) bid, wrote the bank in a note.

EUR/USD is pretty close to resistance at 1.1800/1830 now. The most likely trigger for a breakout would be Wednesday's Federal Reserve.

In the eurozone on Tuesday, markets get updates on the ZEW investor sentiment surveys.

Rate spreads remain EUR/USD supportive as markets increasingly conclude that the European Central Bank is done cutting at 2.00%, while the Fed has another 125bps-150bps of easing to deliver, stated ING.

Earlier Tuesday, there was the release of the United Kingdom jobs data for August. Unlike in the United States, where the 'solid' labor market crumbled this summer, payrolled job losses were only a modest 8,000 in August. There were no surprises in the earnings data, which remains at 4.7%/4.8% year over year, pointed out the bank.

Today's data doesn't change a "huge amount" for the Bank of England, added ING. Many economists were surprised by how little emphasis the BoE seemed to put on the cooler jobs market in its August meeting. Markets get inflation data on Wednesday, where services inflation is likely to dip -- though perhaps not quite as much as consensus expects.

The bank is still narrowly favoring a November rate cut, but a surprise spike in inflation on Wednesday -- one that's not driven by volatile categories -- would probably change ING's mind on that.

GBP/USD is edging higher on Tuesday on the presumption that the BoE can hold its hawkish position for longer. Barring a big downside shock to Wednesday's August CPI data, ING thinks Thursday's BoE event risk could be sterling (GBP) positive too. The bank has a year-end target for GBP/USD at 1.38, which could be met a little sooner.

Monday's markets didn't see much negative impact from the French credit downgrade, and Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies continue to enjoy investors' favor, according to ING. EUR/HUF broke through the key level of 390, and the Polish central bank's hawkish communication is visibly keeping this trade alive even after the end of summer.

Although the bank can see increased sensitivity to potential global shocks here, for now, it seems that the long forint (HUF) trade still has potential to go further.

On the other hand, the rest of CEE has tried in vain to maintain some of Monday's gains and is rather waiting for further local impulses and Wednesday's Fed decision, noted ING.