06:22 AM EDT, 10/28/2025 (MT Newswires) -- EUR/USD has nudged through resistance at 1.1650 in quiet markets, said ING.

The softer US dollar (USD) has been the driver, although the bank wonders whether some compromise on the French budget is helping too. Here, the French National Assembly on Monday adopted an amendment which could see an extra two billion euros raised from corporate taxes next year.

That seems a drop in the ocean for the French budget -- and not particularly positive for French growth -- but investors may be more interested in compromise and a path toward a 2026 budget, stated ING. The link between this and a milder, stronger EUR/USD is probably tenuous at best.

For the eurozone on Tuesday, there are some releases from the European Central Bank. There are the three-year consumer inflation expectations and the ECB bank lending survey. With long-dated euro (EUR) swap rates having risen 30bps-40bps this year -- plus ongoing uncertainty -- lending looks unlikely to surprise on the upside.

The bank will also want to see if the second/third-tier United States data proves a market mover on Tuesday. If so, EUR/USD could edge up towards 1.1700.

During a quiet period for United Kingdom data, focus on Tuesday could fall on a report from the British Retail Consortium that food inflation has fallen to 3.7% year-on-year in October from 4.2%, added ING. Sticky food inflation had been one of the factors preoccupying the Bank of England and delaying rate cuts.

The news might increase interest in positioning for a BoE rate cut at the December meeting. A 25bps cut is currently priced with a 35% probability. The meeting follows the budget in late November, also seen as a sterling (GBP) negative.

The bank expects the news to keep EUR/GBP bid and not far from important resistance at 0.8750/60. Given that sterling is quite an expensive sell with one-week rates above 4.00%, interest may emerge to explore the downside in GBP/NOK and GBP/AUD, because of both the high yields available in Norway and Australia and the supportive environment for commodity prices.

Rates markets saw only a muted opening this week in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, with a lack of data. Foreign exchange, on the other hand, saw some positive spillover from global markets, benefiting in particular Hungary's forint (HUF), which is approaching its strongest levels since early October, according to ING.

Also, the slow grind of EUR/USD up is adding some fuel to CEE, but ING will still wait for global central banks in the coming days, and trade headlines will dictate sentiment.