06:25 AM EDT, 06/09/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The euro has remained reasonably well supported after Thursday's European Central Bank meeting, said ING.
Here, ECB President Christine Lagarde painted a picture of eurozone growth even in the face of global uncertainty. Markets continue to price just one more ECB rate cut, but not until December this year, wrote the bank in a note.
ING suspects more focus on German fiscal stimulus when a new budget is released later this month should keep the euro supported.
The bank has been taking the EUR/USD polls roughly every quarter over the last three years, and typically, the results would show a normal distribution around the prevailing spot level. Last Tuesday's poll result of 57% of respondents expecting EUR/USD to end the year in a 1.15-1.20 range is one of the highest conviction views ING has seen so far.
The bank's baseline view currently is one of an ongoing 1.10-1.15 range this year, where a later start to the next bout of Federal Reserve easing can provide the US dollar a little support. Yet the risk to ING's baseline EUR/USD view is clearly to the upside.
On the eurozone calendar this week is the release of the eurozone wage tracker on Wednesday and a whole host of ECB speakers.
The bank expect EUR/USD to trade well within Friday's 1.1370-1.1455 range.
GBP/USD remains quietly well bid as it rides on the coat-tails of a stronger euro, stated ING. As a major reserve currency, sterling (GBP) in theory should benefit from any de-dollarization flows. With one-week deposit rates at 4.25%, sterling is also seen as an attractive US dollar alternative during quiet market conditions, like now.
On the calendar this week for sterling is jobs data on Tuesday and the United Kingdom government's spending review on Wednesday, pointed out the bank. Neither should be a game changer for sterling.
ING sees Cable to trade a 1.3500-1.3600 range, although there will be some downside risks at some point if the bank is right with its call for two 25bps Bank of England rate cuts this year. Markets currently price just 36bps of rate cuts this year.
The Central and Eastern European (CEE) currency picture remains bullish, added ING. Core markets pushing up CEE rates are leading to widening interest rate differentials.
In addition, a weaker US dollar continues to support currencies in the region even after the U.S. jobs data release on Friday. In the Czech Republic, higher core inflation and potentially some hawkish statements from the central bank (CNB) should push EUR/CZK down below 24.750.
Wednesday's government confidence vote should be positive for the Polish zloty (PLN), unlocking potential coming from a hawkish Polish central bank (NBP) and higher rates, according to ING. EUR/PLN is pointing to 4.250-260 levels based on rates, showing decent rally potential for PLN.