06:09 AM EDT, 05/30/2025 (MT Newswires) -- While EUR/USD may be rallying on the travails of the US dollar, the macro support for the euro isn't particularly strong, said ING.

Friday, the bank has already seen some soft German retail sales data for April -- although the March number was revised higher-- and later Friday, investors could see the May harmonised CPI data for Germany returning to 2.0% year over year.

This would mark perfect timing for next week's European Central Bank policy meeting, where markets fully price a 25bps cut in the deposit rate to 2.00%, stated ING. For reference, markets currently price 58bps of ECB easing this year versus 50bps for the United States Federal Reserve.

That's broadly in line with the bank's house forecasts and suggests interest rate differentials -- which currently suggest EUR/USD should be trading lower -- may not be moving much from current levels.

The U.S. personal spending data may be the biggest driver of EUR/USD on Friday and may keep it supported in the confines of a 1.1300-1.1400 short-term range, pointed out ING.

Elsewhere, Swedish Q1 gross domestic product has disappointed at a 0.2% quarter-over-quarter contraction and could bring forward expectations for another Riksbank rate cut -- now only expected in September. The news is slightly bullish for EUR/SEK, added the bank.

"Interesting" will be the second round of the presidential elections in Poland this weekend, according to ING. Thursday's polls show a very tight race with no clear favorite. From a market perspective, the election result will be pivotal for both the future of the current government and the direction of fiscal policy.

As a consequence, the outcome will have a medium-term impact mainly on the bond market, while the impact on foreign exchange and rates ahead of the curve should fade quickly regardless of the election winner.

Given the declining inflation profile, Poland's central bank (NBP) should deliver rate cuts in any case, negatively weighing on the zloty (PLN), whose valuation appears quite tight in ING's view.